{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd93c118-48d2-461f-8664-b1453cd9e1a9", "symbol": "SFT", "name": "Software Circle plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.21, "architecture_energy": 14.647, "architecture_maturity": 26.807, "architecture_confidence": 55.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.58, "rotation_up": 20.93, "upward_expansion": 15.67, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 33.98, "downward_expansion": 54.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1592, 0.159464, 0.158879, 0.160096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.168817, "distance_from_trend": -0.052226, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.201857, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.540977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.282511, "excess_performance": -0.333747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207361, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282511, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.016358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1889227, "relative_activity": 2.145507, "balance": 6.016358, "dry_up": 1.831077, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061779, "annualized_volatility": 0.422302, "from_high_reference": -0.466667, "from_low_reference": 0.210562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.168817, "fair_value_reference": 0.201857, "structural_low": 0.13217, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.037323, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.052297, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.521739, "worst_return": -0.073684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028571, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.070983, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.150877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.444954, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.377036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.17193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.385854, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.321182, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.347826, "worst_return": -0.447368, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.44, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.235294, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003788, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.403774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003165, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.10375, "volume": 40722, "typical_volume": 56346.25, "trend": 0.095742, "fair_value": 0.063809, "relative_strength": 35.920378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 1881069, "typical_volume": 809911.25, "trend": 0.1741, "fair_value": 0.201128, "relative_strength": -28.701821, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.118415, "energy": 21.027364, "activity_lines": [ 0.159167, 0.159836, 0.158695, 0.161903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1575, "volume": 1101718, "typical_volume": 836955.65, "trend": 0.171417, "fair_value": 0.201497, "relative_strength": -29.570271, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.842088, "energy": 20.318464, "activity_lines": [ 0.158767, 0.159427, 0.158679, 0.160832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 1889227, "typical_volume": 880550.25, "trend": 0.168817, "fair_value": 0.201857, "relative_strength": -27.540977, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.209796, "energy": 14.646704, "activity_lines": [ 0.1592, 0.159464, 0.158879, 0.160096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }