{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cd97bafd-80db-4d2c-bb2d-c30d816bda15", "symbol": "5UA", "name": "Luminor Financial Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.305, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.995, "architecture_energy": 82.216, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 74.947, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.65, "rotation_up": 9.19, "upward_expansion": 18.34, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 79.63, "downward_expansion": 94.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0362, 0.038964, 0.042532, 0.043873 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.033, "trend_reference": 0.045147, "distance_from_trend": -0.269057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.054791, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.397713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.84526, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.175, "excess_performance": -0.329835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.397713, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.010087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4000, "relative_activity": 0.00652, "balance": 5.010087, "dry_up": 0.017726, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149184, "annualized_volatility": 0.834973, "from_high_reference": -0.576923, "from_low_reference": 0.1 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.045147, "fair_value_reference": 0.054791, "structural_low": 0.033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.017587, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.009982, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.342857, "worst_return": -0.270833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.066887, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.422222, "worst_return": -0.296875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.144351, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.522727, "worst_return": -0.21, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.306452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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0.043667, 0.045018, 0.04648, 0.046406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.042, "volume": 63600, "typical_volume": 626691.3, "trend": 0.045647, "fair_value": 0.055701, "relative_strength": -23.217626, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.414203, "energy": 31.175698, "activity_lines": [ 0.043133, 0.044182, 0.046021, 0.046197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.042, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 622936.3, "trend": 0.04588, "fair_value": 0.055509, "relative_strength": -22.638639, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.690338, "energy": 36.306158, "activity_lines": [ 0.0428, 0.043509, 0.045609, 0.045961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.036, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 622156.3, "trend": 0.045781, "fair_value": 0.055278, "relative_strength": -33.637256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.762886, "energy": 66.116976, "activity_lines": [ 0.040467, 0.041891, 0.04465, 0.045324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.036, "volume": 33100, "typical_volume": 623811.3, "trend": 0.045714, "fair_value": 0.055028, "relative_strength": -33.301765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.774434, "energy": 75.058312, "activity_lines": [ 0.0386, 0.040618, 0.043719, 0.044693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.033, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 613521.3, "trend": 0.045147, "fair_value": 0.054791, "relative_strength": -38.84526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.99547, "energy": 82.215791, "activity_lines": [ 0.0362, 0.038964, 0.042532, 0.043873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }