{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cda35197-46b5-4f6b-9c10-0daf176d63c2", "symbol": "003025", "name": "Sijin Intelligent Forming Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.382, "architecture_energy": 72.808, "architecture_maturity": 17.373, "architecture_confidence": 78.81, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.61, "rotation_up": 8.43, "upward_expansion": 16.24, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 73.73, "downward_expansion": 89.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.705333, 12.730104, 13.5127, 13.781003 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.12, "trend_reference": 14.128532, "distance_from_trend": -0.142161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.33179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.134661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165864, "excess_performance": -0.173263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017174, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.471538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18913007, "relative_activity": 0.64623, "balance": 1.471538, "dry_up": 0.840791, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144634, "annualized_volatility": 0.485064, "from_high_reference": -0.349087, "from_low_reference": 0.155386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.128532, "fair_value_reference": 12.33179, "structural_low": 10.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006374, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032107, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.321488, "worst_return": -0.12023, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076318, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.014894, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.093697, "worst_return": -0.084953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.048852, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.08054, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057084, "worst_return": -0.154788, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.70775, "energy": 6.724525, "activity_lines": [ 14.499333, 14.777706, 14.528099, 14.511399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.33, "volume": 32220295, "typical_volume": 30129181.25, "trend": 14.382532, "fair_value": 12.345082, "relative_strength": -21.031325, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.443822, "energy": 46.99405, "activity_lines": [ 13.255333, 14.147741, 14.230976, 14.309192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.96, "volume": 24669459, "typical_volume": 29804789.1, "trend": 14.290865, "fair_value": 12.335716, "relative_strength": -23.317995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.61756, "energy": 70.836465, "activity_lines": [ 12.216, 13.503794, 13.915662, 14.088384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.61, "volume": 22625920, "typical_volume": 29561218.15, "trend": 14.203532, "fair_value": 12.329018, "relative_strength": -16.987438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.355548, "energy": 73.840123, "activity_lines": [ 11.796, 13.039842, 13.681633, 13.915425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.12, "volume": 18913007, "typical_volume": 29266700.0, "trend": 14.128532, "fair_value": 12.33179, "relative_strength": -17.134661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.382261, "energy": 72.807971, "activity_lines": [ 11.705333, 12.730104, 13.5127, 13.781003 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }