{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cda6de46-12b3-449b-b351-997b3ea11613", "symbol": "FDMO", "name": "FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MOMENTUM FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.014, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.376, "architecture_energy": 22.134, "architecture_maturity": 58.948, "architecture_confidence": 82.727, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.58, "rotation_up": 29.09, "upward_expansion": 57.6, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 18.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.987333, 94.436114, 93.75503, 91.527183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 95.76, "trend_reference": 89.006835, "distance_from_trend": 0.075872, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.851861, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.743909, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136582, "excess_performance": 0.010957, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.370901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136582, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.090246, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 347965, "relative_activity": 1.002519, "balance": 1.090246, "dry_up": 1.297986, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042116, "annualized_volatility": 0.175354, "from_high_reference": -0.031455, "from_low_reference": 0.25596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.006835, "fair_value_reference": 69.851861, "structural_low": 76.512673, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03281, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012528, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.09604, "worst_return": -0.091721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042982, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010487, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173466, "worst_return": -0.137899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.135031, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203123, "worst_return": 0.014076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140181, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057914, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00888, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", 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93.36, "volume": 306543, "typical_volume": 355640.2, "trend": 88.434684, "fair_value": 69.25206, "relative_strength": 1.249468, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.086148, "energy": 29.388212, "activity_lines": [ 94.178667, 94.693895, 93.111667, 90.832563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.14, "volume": 593141, "typical_volume": 352022.7, "trend": 88.698691, "fair_value": 69.539964, "relative_strength": -1.154235, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.861522, "energy": 20.881014, "activity_lines": [ 93.378, 94.220948, 93.288387, 91.071615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.76, "volume": 347965, "typical_volume": 347090.85, "trend": 89.006835, "fair_value": 69.851861, "relative_strength": -0.743909, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.375884, "energy": 22.134061, "activity_lines": [ 93.987333, 94.436114, 93.75503, 91.527183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }