{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cda855fb-4b69-43d8-8921-0591109fa33e", "symbol": "NIO", "name": "Nordic Iron Ore AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 76.352, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.985, "architecture_energy": 26.858, "architecture_maturity": 5.422, "architecture_confidence": 43.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.85, "rotation_up": 47.51, "upward_expansion": 51.85, "deceleration": 29.55, "rotation_down": 23.93, "downward_expansion": 12.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.532, 4.463636, 4.372857, 4.310151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.51, "trend_reference": 4.325, "distance_from_trend": 0.042775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.475256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.013118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027335, "excess_performance": -0.03416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042775, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176294, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11919, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008429, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98997, "relative_activity": 1.155007, "balance": 0.74998, "dry_up": 1.208933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111376, "annualized_volatility": 0.2175, "from_high_reference": -0.232993, "from_low_reference": 0.498339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.325, "fair_value_reference": 5.475256, "structural_low": 3.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.018767, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000662, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.26868, "worst_return": -0.210909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.08771, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.039882, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.282051, "worst_return": -0.301754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.108682, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.138804, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.426056, "worst_return": -0.357909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 4.51, "volume": 184990, "typical_volume": 92902.25, "trend": 4.429667, "fair_value": 5.634487, "relative_strength": -10.796723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.063354, "energy": 9.024507, "activity_lines": [ 4.385333, 4.329091, 4.25381, 4.277634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.4, "volume": 194496, "typical_volume": 94257.85, "trend": 4.404333, "fair_value": 5.594423, "relative_strength": -12.119855, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.039525, "energy": 11.125739, "activity_lines": [ 4.408667, 4.345455, 4.274381, 4.27572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.6, "volume": 29092, "typical_volume": 86486.1, "trend": 4.391333, "fair_value": 5.560577, "relative_strength": -9.586413, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.976823, "energy": 29.017953, "activity_lines": [ 4.482667, 4.394545, 4.313524, 4.288344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.58, "volume": 91891, "typical_volume": 83608.8, "trend": 4.360667, "fair_value": 5.519423, "relative_strength": -11.195009, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.948506, "energy": 31.698735, "activity_lines": [ 4.529333, 4.437091, 4.348143, 4.300516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.51, "volume": 98997, "typical_volume": 85711.15, "trend": 4.325, "fair_value": 5.475256, "relative_strength": -14.013118, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.985398, "energy": 26.857993, "activity_lines": [ 4.532, 4.463636, 4.372857, 4.310151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }