{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdb1cc00-bd5f-4539-a8f0-1405d7e05e7e", "symbol": "ORGO", "name": "Organogenesis Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.903, "architecture_energy": 42.385, "architecture_maturity": 76.806, "architecture_confidence": 86.232, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.61, "rotation_up": 20.24, "upward_expansion": 6.15, "deceleration": 48.87, "rotation_down": 58.95, "downward_expansion": 77.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.239333, 2.322364, 2.383905, 2.481871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.86, "trend_reference": 2.74, "distance_from_trend": -0.321168, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.394679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.452084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.843336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.506631, "excess_performance": -0.694085, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255097, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.452084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.558433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055789, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.506631, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.744685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7853331, "relative_activity": 1.274039, "balance": 0.744685, "dry_up": 0.755408, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186381, "annualized_volatility": 0.609879, "from_high_reference": -0.73718, "from_low_reference": 0.207792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.74, "fair_value_reference": 3.394679, "structural_low": 1.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.041443, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.044692, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.545894, "worst_return": -0.259947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.21519, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.194216, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.632558, "worst_return": -0.387707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.346213, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.29455, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.539924, "worst_return": -0.569528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.373522, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.490693, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.302326, "worst_return": -0.718563, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054983, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.946708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.319249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.569343, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.173949, "energy": 21.734908, "activity_lines": [ 2.452, 2.443636, 2.444238, 2.577495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 2728903, "typical_volume": 5949461.05, "trend": 2.818333, "fair_value": 3.400481, "relative_strength": -41.902915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.062035, "energy": 20.296689, "activity_lines": [ 2.428667, 2.426727, 2.437714, 2.543699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.86, "volume": 7853331, "typical_volume": 6164122.8, "trend": 2.74, "fair_value": 3.394679, "relative_strength": -55.843336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.902736, "energy": 42.385491, "activity_lines": [ 2.239333, 2.322364, 2.383905, 2.481871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }