{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdb21021-e65e-4e01-bd5b-a7d36eadd9ec", "symbol": "CXSE", "name": "WISDOMTREE CHINA EX-STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.667, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.73, "architecture_energy": 19.559, "architecture_maturity": 22.903, "architecture_confidence": 61.032, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.94, "rotation_up": 22.2, "upward_expansion": 15.12, "deceleration": 58.76, "rotation_down": 39.88, "downward_expansion": 62.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.408673, 38.309037, 38.771784, 38.928503 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.4346, "trend_reference": 39.346926, "distance_from_trend": 0.002228, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.730249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.37226, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037191, "excess_performance": -0.224645, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002228, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020827, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037191, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.658237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119932, "relative_activity": 0.898424, "balance": 1.658237, "dry_up": 1.407895, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03753, "annualized_volatility": 0.175064, "from_high_reference": -0.128781, "from_low_reference": 0.06966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.346926, "fair_value_reference": 32.730249, "structural_low": 36.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.015009, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.71875, "median_excess_return": -0.017987, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.327437, "worst_return": -0.122106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.018605, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.090198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195935, "worst_return": -0.172188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.085369, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.101533, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.386925, "worst_return": -0.233365, 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48.084591, "activity_lines": [ 38.348518, 38.727757, 39.070192, 39.300551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.3545, "volume": 115012, "typical_volume": 155211.15, "trend": 39.648367, "fair_value": 32.602567, "relative_strength": -16.42785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333778, "energy": 61.430359, "activity_lines": [ 37.963962, 38.400846, 38.910089, 39.145503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.4907, "volume": 136713, "typical_volume": 131455.75, "trend": 39.528747, "fair_value": 32.631962, "relative_strength": -14.483474, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.861138, "energy": 57.635867, "activity_lines": [ 37.72422, 38.163526, 38.773683, 39.006299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.3122, "volume": 380111, "typical_volume": 142994.1, "trend": 39.42389, "fair_value": 32.67231, "relative_strength": -12.836262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.126259, "energy": 38.236226, "activity_lines": [ 37.887787, 38.122768, 38.718033, 38.927812 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.4346, "volume": 119932, "typical_volume": 133491.5, "trend": 39.346926, "fair_value": 32.730249, "relative_strength": -14.37226, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.730084, "energy": 19.558809, "activity_lines": [ 38.408673, 38.309037, 38.771784, 38.928503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }