{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdb76edd-c489-4dc8-b9ae-8b5f81b35345", "symbol": "BST", "name": "Biotechnology Assets, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.001, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.476, "architecture_energy": 21.506, "architecture_maturity": 8.539, "architecture_confidence": 72.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.9, "rotation_up": 20.34, "upward_expansion": 15.31, "deceleration": 61.04, "rotation_down": 52.38, "downward_expansion": 42.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.218267, 0.220782, 0.231162, 0.230611 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.227, "trend_reference": 0.2256, "distance_from_trend": 0.006206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.323212, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.408688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.164103, "excess_performance": 0.039672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297674, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294087, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164103, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 471500, "relative_activity": 0.655453, "balance": 0.675795, "dry_up": 0.73151, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093697, "annualized_volatility": 0.439709, "from_high_reference": -0.522105, "from_low_reference": 0.289773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2256, "fair_value_reference": 0.323212, "structural_low": 0.177, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027005, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061144, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.093023, "worst_return": -0.220077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.118863, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.158894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197987, "worst_return": -0.383607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.211886, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.21984, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.02349, "worst_return": -0.281547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.186047, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.367537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.130293, "worst_return": -0.214765, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057187, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183486, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0798, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.16309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.135246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080952, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.387, "volume": 3669230, "typical_volume": 3073236.25, "trend": 0.373917, "fair_value": 0.316802, "relative_strength": 22.818901, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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0.24149, 0.233912 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.225, "volume": 157186, "typical_volume": 1009635.3, "trend": 0.226867, "fair_value": 0.328038, "relative_strength": -35.075136, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.125446, "energy": 14.176801, "activity_lines": [ 0.231933, 0.239564, 0.240729, 0.233675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.211, "volume": 1906833, "typical_volume": 1085696.2, "trend": 0.225267, "fair_value": 0.326756, "relative_strength": -36.224064, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.290869, "energy": 30.143321, "activity_lines": [ 0.223667, 0.233364, 0.238457, 0.232652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 688932, "typical_volume": 890746.55, "trend": 0.224533, "fair_value": 0.32559, "relative_strength": -34.677067, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.632223, "energy": 39.775115, "activity_lines": [ 0.217667, 0.228073, 0.23599, 0.231667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.212, "volume": 266490, "typical_volume": 867071.5, "trend": 0.224067, "fair_value": 0.324519, "relative_strength": -34.201879, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.128089, "energy": 46.827114, "activity_lines": [ 0.213933, 0.223782, 0.233752, 0.230858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.218, "volume": 677923, "typical_volume": 859722.0, "trend": 0.224767, "fair_value": 0.323865, "relative_strength": -31.908927, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.049961, "energy": 44.414502, "activity_lines": [ 0.214333, 0.220982, 0.232048, 0.230467 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.227, "volume": 471500, "typical_volume": 719349.5, "trend": 0.2256, "fair_value": 0.323212, "relative_strength": -29.408688, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.476171, "energy": 21.506383, "activity_lines": [ 0.218267, 0.220782, 0.231162, 0.230611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }