{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdbe77d5-d5d1-483f-9df5-9d81bf0fbbea", "symbol": "KSM-F13", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4A) Tel-Div", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.537, "architecture_energy": 66.879, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.005, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 52.89, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 442.953333, 444.429091, 10402.98381, 19280.171183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 435.7, "trend_reference": 29580.11, "distance_from_trend": -0.985271, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30370.91859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.887566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.990656, "excess_performance": -1.019556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.985271, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327308, "read": "Falling" 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429.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.010101, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.003832, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.068528, "worst_return": -0.121065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049498, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016708, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110862, "worst_return": -0.115508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044276, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026034, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.264009, "worst_return": -0.10746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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67.706626, "activity_lines": [ 447.04, 1287.634545, 14996.794762, 23334.137419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 442.9, "volume": 434, "typical_volume": 976.85, "trend": 31117.586667, "fair_value": 30523.702564, "relative_strength": -98.892747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.73077, "energy": 67.397598, "activity_lines": [ 446.633333, 447.349091, 12593.048571, 21259.647742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 435.7, "volume": 447, "typical_volume": 884.95, "trend": 29580.11, "fair_value": 30370.91859, "relative_strength": -98.887566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.537385, "energy": 66.879037, "activity_lines": [ 442.953333, 444.429091, 10402.98381, 19280.171183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }