{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdc633e8-a5c3-412d-8974-eb3cacd24877", "symbol": "NOL", "name": "NobleOak Life Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.713, "architecture_energy": 49.516, "architecture_maturity": 53.824, "architecture_confidence": 92.214, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.06, "rotation_up": 16.18, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 62.78, "downward_expansion": 83.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.171667, 1.187727, 1.210167, 1.231903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 1.274667, "distance_from_trend": -0.097803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.492452, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.149944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.154412, "excess_performance": -0.218117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116162, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154412, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.171606, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 214827, "relative_activity": 1.769284, "balance": 0.171606, "dry_up": 2.06345, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064548, "annualized_volatility": 0.316351, "from_high_reference": -0.287926, "from_low_reference": 0.036036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.274667, "fair_value_reference": 1.492452, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.011556, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.0144, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.110266, "worst_return": -0.132565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048991, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.082284, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.114983, "worst_return": -0.130303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030985, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081082, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.059233, "worst_return": -0.172911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.183506, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126761, "worst_return": -0.26875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161972, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075988, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-26", 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35.445586, "activity_lines": [ 1.22, 1.229182, 1.241286, 1.27243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.195, "volume": 199453, "typical_volume": 89587.25, "trend": 1.312, "fair_value": 1.505593, "relative_strength": -12.911255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.358416, "energy": 31.889292, "activity_lines": [ 1.214, 1.220182, 1.235071, 1.26429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.19, "volume": 146111, "typical_volume": 90593.05, "trend": 1.303, "fair_value": 1.502676, "relative_strength": -12.895058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.738776, "energy": 37.453937, "activity_lines": [ 1.206667, 1.211636, 1.229262, 1.256419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.17, "volume": 430513, "typical_volume": 107832.35, "trend": 1.294667, "fair_value": 1.499471, "relative_strength": -13.795574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.499623, "energy": 38.220712, "activity_lines": [ 1.191333, 1.202545, 1.222262, 1.247839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.185, "volume": 210728, "typical_volume": 112564.65, "trend": 1.287333, "fair_value": 1.49617, "relative_strength": -14.388782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.509887, "energy": 37.118224, "activity_lines": [ 1.187333, 1.197818, 1.217524, 1.240763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 214827, "typical_volume": 121420.3, "trend": 1.274667, "fair_value": 1.492452, "relative_strength": -19.149944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.712761, "energy": 49.515627, "activity_lines": [ 1.171667, 1.187727, 1.210167, 1.231903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }