{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cdc9c3b8-ce9e-4a7a-87db-86be665e431e",
    "symbol": "JPXN",
    "name": "ISHARES TRUST JPX-NIKKEI 400 ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 74.656,
    "architecture_energy": 41.427,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.266,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.407,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.05,
        "rotation_up": 50.61,
        "upward_expansion": 77.88,
        "deceleration": 63.36,
        "rotation_down": 24.15,
        "downward_expansion": 4.55
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        100.444413,
        99.883303,
        98.847805,
        97.50606
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 104.0345,
    "trend_reference": 95.988176,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.083826,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 75.936868,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.370013,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.019907,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.092732,
    "excess_performance": -0.032893,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083826,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048758,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.370013,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007499,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020199,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.014134,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092732,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.622514,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 29826,
      "relative_activity": 0.389982,
      "balance": 1.622514,
      "dry_up": 0.435389,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033883,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.223877,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.304065
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 95.988176,
      "fair_value_reference": 75.936868,
      "structural_low": 86.998839,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.02218,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019398,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.066532,
        "worst_return": -0.024871,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.049074,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022084,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.124078,
        "worst_return": -0.045631,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.014776,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.107698,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.133922,
        "worst_return": -0.161222,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.085915,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039861,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184329,
        "worst_return": -0.260882,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.097638,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.022842,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008895,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-11-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043102,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.059844,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023097,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015894,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.104223,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01682,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.066532,
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.045863,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 167770.8,
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        "relative_strength": -0.604946,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 131852.85,
        "trend": 95.088328,
        "fair_value": 75.40971,
        "relative_strength": 0.631995,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 99.4724,
        "volume": 30795,
        "typical_volume": 84853.8,
        "trend": 95.520011,
        "fair_value": 75.658066,
        "relative_strength": 1.067427,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.947651,
        "energy": 24.039415,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 104.0345,
        "volume": 29826,
        "typical_volume": 76480.45,
        "trend": 95.988176,
        "fair_value": 75.936868,
        "relative_strength": 2.019907,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.655674,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}