{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdd3ed34-b9ad-4411-bc87-baa3618f909e", "symbol": "000035", "name": "China Tianying Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.901, "architecture_energy": 57.002, "architecture_maturity": 73.542, "architecture_confidence": 91.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.9, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 10.69, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 48.77, "downward_expansion": 81.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 4.766364, 5.231429, 5.630688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.82, "trend_reference": 5.993667, "distance_from_trend": -0.195818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.024892, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.359744, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211129, "excess_performance": -0.218529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050333, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040775, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.476447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246901125, "relative_activity": 1.229749, "balance": 0.476447, "dry_up": 1.164196, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093361, "annualized_volatility": 0.505018, "from_high_reference": -0.439535, "from_low_reference": 0.132709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.993667, "fair_value_reference": 5.024892, "structural_low": 4.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.024924, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.02476, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.405472, "worst_return": -0.05567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.296703, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.092563, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.765492, "worst_return": -0.107034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.276331, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.259036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344412, "worst_return": 0.182365, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072495, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.023488, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06379, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08347, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170423, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021186, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.104753, "volume": 160181227, "typical_volume": 68035572.25, "trend": 4.895429, "fair_value": 4.852617, "relative_strength": 1.933109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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6.038333, "fair_value": 5.020107, "relative_strength": -19.871142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.858411, "energy": 84.971536, "activity_lines": [ 4.561333, 4.799455, 5.41419, 5.772968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.03, "volume": 247818778, "typical_volume": 218052231.6, "trend": 6.017, "fair_value": 5.023679, "relative_strength": -10.431083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.273376, "energy": 64.042903, "activity_lines": [ 4.692667, 4.793273, 5.325762, 5.707914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.82, "volume": 246901125, "typical_volume": 200773532.8, "trend": 5.993667, "fair_value": 5.024892, "relative_strength": -18.359744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.900692, "energy": 57.00176, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 4.766364, 5.231429, 5.630688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }