{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cddd2537-00e9-4e8e-a12f-100ab1f361ce", "symbol": "000933", "name": "Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.037, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.749, "architecture_energy": 24.563, "architecture_maturity": 70.966, "architecture_confidence": 66.816, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.05, "rotation_up": 28.63, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 61.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.654667, 24.748182, 26.25785, 27.587243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.83, "trend_reference": 28.992022, "distance_from_trend": -0.074573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.714448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.071682, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.160927, "excess_performance": -0.168327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.116332, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 316002029, "relative_activity": 1.34144, "balance": 2.116332, "dry_up": 1.593662, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095234, "annualized_volatility": 0.465267, "from_high_reference": -0.301623, "from_low_reference": 0.578244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.992022, "fair_value_reference": 19.714448, "structural_low": 20.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.120796, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.082127, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.289168, "worst_return": -0.115256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.190747, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.238186, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.446857, "worst_return": 0.07309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.217908, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.215197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.659343, "worst_return": 0.084698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.592957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192237, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142188, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.823399, "volume": 190981932, "typical_volume": 166355796.35, "trend": 13.64689, "fair_value": 9.944765, "relative_strength": 4.216899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.693914, "energy": 83.501239, "activity_lines": [ 23.106666, 24.439302, 26.962904, 28.177605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.98, "volume": 387789445, "typical_volume": 232920545.85, "trend": 29.009121, "fair_value": 19.53936, "relative_strength": -2.792244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.47222, "energy": 53.987868, "activity_lines": [ 23.788, 24.288371, 26.589779, 27.916136 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.07, "volume": 313542274, "typical_volume": 233477678.3, "trend": 28.988716, "fair_value": 19.623779, "relative_strength": 2.637667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.222779, "energy": 34.988015, "activity_lines": [ 24.75, 24.413454, 26.364249, 27.726515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.83, "volume": 316002029, "typical_volume": 235569220.45, "trend": 28.992022, "fair_value": 19.714448, "relative_strength": -0.071682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.748843, "energy": 24.562905, "activity_lines": [ 25.654667, 24.748182, 26.25785, 27.587243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }