{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cddee0cf-f197-4940-8149-e78ad350f0b1", "symbol": "SKUK", "name": "iShares $ Sukuk UCITS ETF USD Dis", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 79.878, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.657, "architecture_energy": 11.292, "architecture_maturity": 15.672, "architecture_confidence": 64.449, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.56, "rotation_up": 20.73, "upward_expansion": 28.42, "deceleration": 70.15, "rotation_down": 47.08, "downward_expansion": 25.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.0526, 5.062145, 5.061356, 5.055121 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.063, "trend_reference": 5.052844, "distance_from_trend": 0.00201, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.887989, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.035804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.524416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000127, "excess_performance": -0.116789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.035804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000127, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201738, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 655721, "relative_activity": 2.282942, "balance": 1.201738, "dry_up": 1.159572, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008215, "annualized_volatility": 0.038714, "from_high_reference": -0.023985, "from_low_reference": 0.033088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.052844, "fair_value_reference": 4.887989, "structural_low": 4.900839, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007535, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024147, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.022471, "worst_return": -0.003149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.023436, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077806, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024431, "worst_return": 0.022442, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.030072, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.074582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.030072, "worst_return": 0.030072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.059341, 5.055564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.065, "volume": 393092, "typical_volume": 289205.0, "trend": 5.053411, "fair_value": 4.884355, "relative_strength": -9.838343, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.99264, "energy": 34.033564, "activity_lines": [ 5.076267, 5.073894, 5.061021, 5.056344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.04, "volume": 147528, "typical_volume": 277115.95, "trend": 5.053082, "fair_value": 4.885534, "relative_strength": -9.850424, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.802239, "energy": 11.894838, "activity_lines": [ 5.0632, 5.068727, 5.060504, 5.055479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.037, "volume": 135897, "typical_volume": 270663.9, "trend": 5.052468, "fair_value": 4.886673, "relative_strength": -10.322115, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.004594, "energy": 10.336751, "activity_lines": [ 5.051867, 5.063018, 5.059744, 5.054441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.063, "volume": 655721, "typical_volume": 287226.35, "trend": 5.052844, "fair_value": 4.887989, "relative_strength": -10.524416, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.656787, "energy": 11.292133, "activity_lines": [ 5.0526, 5.062145, 5.061356, 5.055121 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }