{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cde589fa-0937-40bd-b7be-ca02ddbc3db4", "symbol": "POW", "name": "Power Metal Resources plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.921, "architecture_energy": 44.818, "architecture_maturity": 40.079, "architecture_confidence": 85.589, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.57, "rotation_up": 17.97, "upward_expansion": 5.86, "deceleration": 56.03, "rotation_down": 58.38, "downward_expansion": 79.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.119083, 0.121232, 0.125476, 0.129798 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.136858, "distance_from_trend": -0.123181, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.143324, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.397007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.301235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017293, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.672187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1339178, "relative_activity": 0.880675, "balance": 1.672187, "dry_up": 1.294241, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083103, "annualized_volatility": 0.248151, "from_high_reference": -0.368421, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.136858, "fair_value_reference": 0.143324, "structural_low": 0.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": 0.009414, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.742857, "worst_return": -0.266667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.036814, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.062718, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.275701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.012729, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087947, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.447368, "worst_return": -0.345794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033333, 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0.134942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 957236, "typical_volume": 1518582.15, "trend": 0.139067, "fair_value": 0.14405, "relative_strength": -19.728515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.126993, "energy": 74.637809, "activity_lines": [ 0.121583, 0.125859, 0.129076, 0.133688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.115, "volume": 2359412, "typical_volume": 1552077.65, "trend": 0.138525, "fair_value": 0.143741, "relative_strength": -23.447473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.833419, "energy": 77.117816, "activity_lines": [ 0.118917, 0.123468, 0.127406, 0.132135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.12, "volume": 3216408, "typical_volume": 1584989.95, "trend": 0.137692, "fair_value": 0.143485, "relative_strength": -20.63911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.174088, "energy": 56.969047, "activity_lines": [ 0.118917, 0.122259, 0.126385, 0.13094 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1339178, "typical_volume": 1520627.65, "trend": 0.136858, "fair_value": 0.143324, "relative_strength": -20.397007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.921398, "energy": 44.818346, "activity_lines": [ 0.119083, 0.121232, 0.125476, 0.129798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }