{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdf0202f-e6be-45e8-bbcd-3bd230934532", "symbol": "PEN", "name": "Penumbra Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.587, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.977, "architecture_energy": 19.145, "architecture_maturity": 62.636, "architecture_confidence": 59.36, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.52, "rotation_up": 30.39, "upward_expansion": 22.11, "deceleration": 43.74, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 53.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 321.266, 319.871091, 320.998905, 324.348151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 324.66, "trend_reference": 330.323667, "distance_from_trend": -0.017146, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 258.915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.956798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047974, "excess_performance": -0.173599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017146, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019268, "read": "Rising" 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314.8, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005797, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.012606, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.404245, "worst_return": -0.239949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064818, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.020445, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.627684, "worst_return": -0.442687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.264278, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.132385, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.856667, "worst_return": -0.525513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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321.913857, 325.982065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 318.73, "volume": 2414895, "typical_volume": 2310010.0, "trend": 329.857333, "fair_value": 257.978782, "relative_strength": -3.080296, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.406784, "energy": 41.627727, "activity_lines": [ 318.333333, 318.444909, 321.255524, 325.267957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 321.19, "volume": 1815813, "typical_volume": 2250564.55, "trend": 330.249667, "fair_value": 258.42, "relative_strength": -3.536186, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.223463, "energy": 32.352232, "activity_lines": [ 319.373333, 318.774364, 320.926286, 324.708774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 324.66, "volume": 1476334, "typical_volume": 2185840.45, "trend": 330.323667, "fair_value": 258.915, "relative_strength": -5.956798, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.977383, "energy": 19.145435, "activity_lines": [ 321.266, 319.871091, 320.998905, 324.348151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }