{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdf347e2-04b5-44c4-a6d3-d4be48671398", "symbol": "GDYN", "name": "Grid Dynamics Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.536, "architecture_energy": 21.421, "architecture_maturity": 20.52, "architecture_confidence": 40.834, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.6, "rotation_up": 52.38, "upward_expansion": 32.21, "deceleration": 40.65, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 23.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.665333, 6.319636, 6.311976, 6.314591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.58, "trend_reference": 6.542333, "distance_from_trend": 0.158608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.627019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.34807, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.601715, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063114, "excess_performance": -0.12434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127146, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.34807, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066856, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.226488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063114, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12007134, "relative_activity": 1.161606, "balance": 0.846728, "dry_up": 0.954005, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124554, "annualized_volatility": 0.578712, "from_high_reference": -0.257591, "from_low_reference": 0.484819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.542333, "fair_value_reference": 11.627019, "structural_low": 5.105, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.132901, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.080432, "regime_survival": 0.230769, "best_return": 0.129306, "worst_return": -0.291525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.229452, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.241158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083289, "worst_return": -0.462524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.178082, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.235302, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.088452, "worst_return": -0.343126, "sufficient": true }, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117015, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.370968, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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[ 5.82, 6.037636, 6.139976, 6.308978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.69, "volume": 6722576, "typical_volume": 9918966.0, "trend": 6.672667, "fair_value": 11.679071, "relative_strength": -29.924392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.593087, "energy": 30.850602, "activity_lines": [ 5.791333, 5.930545, 6.097071, 6.23786 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.89, "volume": 14655879, "typical_volume": 10127398.1, "trend": 6.608, "fair_value": 11.650673, "relative_strength": -15.009607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.318425, "energy": 9.186726, "activity_lines": [ 6.160667, 6.060182, 6.173, 6.251882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.58, "volume": 12007134, "typical_volume": 10336667.35, "trend": 6.542333, "fair_value": 11.627019, "relative_strength": -10.601715, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.535914, "energy": 21.421492, "activity_lines": [ 6.665333, 6.319636, 6.311976, 6.314591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }