{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdf36f11-4814-4ac2-8008-aed9afd3c460", "symbol": "XPC", "name": "XP Chemistries AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 89.271, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.491, "architecture_energy": 22.901, "architecture_maturity": 23.189, "architecture_confidence": 59.189, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.22, "rotation_up": 20.4, "upward_expansion": 13.01, "deceleration": 59.98, "rotation_down": 40.99, "downward_expansion": 63.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.167933, 0.167845, 0.171345, 0.17423 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.1705, "trend_reference": 0.1782, "distance_from_trend": -0.04321, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.174366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.618567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083333, "excess_performance": -0.144828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04321, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022172, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128779, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096747, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.2952, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 912956, "relative_activity": 0.866418, "balance": 2.2952, "dry_up": 0.574046, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081435, "annualized_volatility": 0.250705, "from_high_reference": -0.487988, "from_low_reference": 0.152027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1782, "fair_value_reference": 0.174366, "structural_low": 0.148, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008514, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.017481, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 2.921053, "worst_return": -0.702993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.15045, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.173419, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 3.4, "worst_return": -0.711044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.185027, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.28, "worst_return": -0.796405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.165667, 0.168536, 0.172488, 0.175446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.168, "volume": 714985, "typical_volume": 1054870.8, "trend": 0.178433, "fair_value": 0.176055, "relative_strength": -25.062532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.289983, "energy": 34.359697, "activity_lines": [ 0.166267, 0.167845, 0.171764, 0.174742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1705, "volume": 912956, "typical_volume": 1053712.95, "trend": 0.1782, "fair_value": 0.174366, "relative_strength": -24.618567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.490638, "energy": 22.901129, "activity_lines": [ 0.167933, 0.167845, 0.171345, 0.17423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }