{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdf80170-898c-452e-b353-adde32ec6532", "symbol": "600637", "name": "Oriental Pearl Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.833, "architecture_energy": 51.264, "architecture_maturity": 48.227, "architecture_confidence": 92.057, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 7.92, "deceleration": 57.68, "rotation_down": 55.33, "downward_expansion": 81.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.983411, 8.05358, 8.639012, 9.092619 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.22, "trend_reference": 9.880852, "distance_from_trend": -0.168088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.898849, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040658, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.996351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276408, "excess_performance": -0.233205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168088, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139964, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276408, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201532997, "relative_activity": 0.909275, "balance": 0.94829, "dry_up": 0.971841, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09289, "annualized_volatility": 0.359491, "from_high_reference": -0.490074, "from_low_reference": 0.108591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.880852, "fair_value_reference": 7.898849, "structural_low": 7.414815, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.000973, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.004259, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.200762, "worst_return": -0.087379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036972, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.395866, "worst_return": -0.07754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.203678, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.146765, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.358321, "worst_return": -0.059219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.466062, "energy": 85.258994, "activity_lines": [ 7.91372, 8.374792, 8.993567, 9.474956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.58, "volume": 157565401, "typical_volume": 215462426.75, "trend": 9.975519, "fair_value": 7.888003, "relative_strength": -18.158272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.377926, "energy": 79.814221, "activity_lines": [ 7.738016, 8.151964, 8.821541, 9.316536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.22, "volume": 286200625, "typical_volume": 220039866.35, "trend": 9.935185, "fair_value": 7.893545, "relative_strength": -11.634261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.879589, "energy": 57.253141, "activity_lines": [ 7.862313, 8.082954, 8.725086, 9.203277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.22, "volume": 201532997, "typical_volume": 221641310.4, "trend": 9.880852, "fair_value": 7.898849, "relative_strength": -13.996351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.832789, "energy": 51.264264, "activity_lines": [ 7.983411, 8.05358, 8.639012, 9.092619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }