{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdfa110f-f6ec-445a-bfec-81c40ce8b9c4", "symbol": "RGLD", "name": "Royal Gold, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.188, "architecture_energy": 90.258, "architecture_maturity": 53.652, "architecture_confidence": 92.177, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 29.76, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 60.9, "downward_expansion": 97.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3459.77998, 3525.078444, 3703.02736, 3924.477897 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3452.0, "trend_reference": 4225.994396, "distance_from_trend": -0.183151, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2885.322847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1964, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.935327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311857, "excess_performance": -0.257191, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183151, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1964, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.031211, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015909, "annualized_volatility": 0.429853, "from_high_reference": -0.335436, "from_low_reference": 0.220095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4225.994396, "fair_value_reference": 2885.322847, "structural_low": 3452.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.08, "median_excess_return": -0.00755, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.233953, "worst_return": -0.063989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.000184, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.007674, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.265042, "worst_return": -0.052993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000368, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.053794, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.791757, "worst_return": -0.052865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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-11.577475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.41114, "energy": 92.516587, "activity_lines": [ 3520.011304, 3591.288466, 3805.369363, 4029.099764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3452.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 40.05, "trend": 4250.544445, "fair_value": 2876.235419, "relative_strength": -12.852608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.906685, "energy": 92.612596, "activity_lines": [ 3481.336637, 3552.697257, 3750.514064, 3975.996893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3452.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.05, "trend": 4225.994396, "fair_value": 2885.322847, "relative_strength": -12.935327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.188358, "energy": 90.258331, "activity_lines": [ 3459.77998, 3525.078444, 3703.02736, 3924.477897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }