{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cdfe5dd4-c9a2-45a9-b5a0-18d5ac66ad34", "symbol": "HUN", "name": "Huntsman Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.768, "architecture_energy": 47.204, "architecture_maturity": 25.622, "architecture_confidence": 81.964, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.25, "rotation_up": 13.07, "upward_expansion": 6.08, "deceleration": 47.94, "rotation_down": 64.32, "downward_expansion": 79.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.85, 11.311632, 12.389567, 12.545377 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.12, "trend_reference": 12.575681, "distance_from_trend": -0.195272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.077072, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.370532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.749391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238504, "excess_performance": -0.364129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.370532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.430268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693851, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18797183, "relative_activity": 0.701522, "balance": 0.693851, "dry_up": 0.733918, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.169568, "annualized_volatility": 0.738054, "from_high_reference": -0.370842, "from_low_reference": 0.416846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.575681, "fair_value_reference": 16.077072, "structural_low": 9.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.061909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065892, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.04776, "worst_return": -0.090746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047228, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.046103, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191221, "worst_return": 0.039359, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.102041, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036401, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.341482, "worst_return": -0.137399, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055664, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152465, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.415755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175595, 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-28.87088, "energy": 39.555517, "activity_lines": [ 11.530253, 12.645765, 13.098548, 12.919911 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.79, "volume": 18036558, "typical_volume": 30233301.4, "trend": 12.539183, "fair_value": 16.346786, "relative_strength": -2.986218, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.053758, "energy": 50.835359, "activity_lines": [ 11.388, 12.363665, 12.98381, 12.875529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.8, "volume": 17853194, "typical_volume": 28863510.75, "trend": 12.634103, "fair_value": 16.263928, "relative_strength": 5.903432, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.995163, "energy": 37.941482, "activity_lines": [ 11.84, 12.321348, 12.968595, 12.892356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.76, "volume": 23973997, "typical_volume": 27922411.05, "trend": 12.624069, "fair_value": 16.167627, "relative_strength": -20.006031, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.925667, "energy": 43.722616, "activity_lines": [ 11.23, 11.741304, 12.65669, 12.70693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.12, "volume": 18797183, "typical_volume": 26794873.15, "trend": 12.575681, "fair_value": 16.077072, "relative_strength": -19.749391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.768127, "energy": 47.204373, "activity_lines": [ 10.85, 11.311632, 12.389567, 12.545377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }