{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce0512b6-2adb-4a5a-a4fe-4ded9c0c03ac", "symbol": "002434", "name": "Zhejiang Wanliyang Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.471, "architecture_energy": 77.332, "architecture_maturity": 58.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.404, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.52, "rotation_up": 15.12, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 40.34, "rotation_down": 66.41, "downward_expansion": 89.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.602, 5.872047, 6.442357, 6.962606 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.78, "trend_reference": 7.750056, "distance_from_trend": -0.254199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.089586, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.18472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.252046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.417339, "excess_performance": -0.424738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110272, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.18472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065845, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.417339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92408473, "relative_activity": 1.115116, "balance": 0.459598, "dry_up": 1.101301, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102935, "annualized_volatility": 0.444867, "from_high_reference": -0.488948, "from_low_reference": 0.128906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.750056, "fair_value_reference": 7.089586, "structural_low": 5.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.003068, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022256, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.234246, "worst_return": -0.201439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049207, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.056141, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.368852, "worst_return": -0.186817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.187136, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.182949, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.330677, "worst_return": -0.31905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 6.002905, 6.397708, 6.90981, 7.439004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.21, "volume": 100932791, "typical_volume": 82457407.75, "trend": 8.000056, "fair_value": 7.119854, "relative_strength": -38.593059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.26075, "energy": 86.256024, "activity_lines": [ 5.685339, 6.119967, 6.705802, 7.250678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.63, "volume": 76344658, "typical_volume": 82403341.5, "trend": 7.875056, "fair_value": 7.103285, "relative_strength": -32.105478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.068959, "energy": 80.692481, "activity_lines": [ 5.608667, 5.964497, 6.559556, 7.097771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.78, "volume": 92408473, "typical_volume": 82868935.75, "trend": 7.750056, "fair_value": 7.089586, "relative_strength": -33.252046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.47086, "energy": 77.332081, "activity_lines": [ 5.602, 5.872047, 6.442357, 6.962606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }