{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce078e62-9e1e-4e0e-ba86-d224cc111f9d", "symbol": "ALOY", "name": "REalloys Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.682, "architecture_energy": 35.497, "architecture_maturity": 12.389, "architecture_confidence": 56.77, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.74, "rotation_up": 11.58, "upward_expansion": 4.97, "deceleration": 50.25, "rotation_down": 62.19, "downward_expansion": 73.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.839667, 11.185, 11.29831, 11.450957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.27, "trend_reference": 11.678333, "distance_from_trend": 0.050664, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.463929, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.245637, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.556903, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142458, "excess_performance": -0.044996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050664, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.245637, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075569, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113472, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.193533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18586437, "relative_activity": 1.600761, "balance": 1.193533, "dry_up": 1.308127, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.272073, "annualized_volatility": 1.482261, "from_high_reference": -0.543866, "from_low_reference": 1.175532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.678333, "fair_value_reference": 5.463929, "structural_low": 6.825, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.015097, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060378, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.546512, "worst_return": -0.361961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.213636, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.022893, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.646154, "worst_return": -0.625078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.197652, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030283, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.598837, "worst_return": -0.671756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.558269, "energy": 62.778633, "activity_lines": [ 14.758667, 13.256182, 12.176952, 12.022613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.28, "volume": 9342686, "typical_volume": 10232593.4, "trend": 11.6515, "fair_value": 5.298556, "relative_strength": 7.470347, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.323249, "energy": 47.745461, "activity_lines": [ 13.956, 13.293091, 12.179357, 12.069839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.885, "volume": 8803350, "typical_volume": 10502410.95, "trend": 11.675667, "fair_value": 5.337562, "relative_strength": -18.761054, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.436642, "energy": 6.65607, "activity_lines": [ 12.035, 12.668545, 11.862333, 11.891355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.025, "volume": 12843021, "typical_volume": 10606793.2, "trend": 11.6275, "fair_value": 5.364966, "relative_strength": -34.490621, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.237606, "energy": 35.225536, "activity_lines": [ 9.916333, 11.724091, 11.413762, 11.591312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.78, "volume": 20521832, "typical_volume": 11154682.2, "trend": 11.598, "fair_value": 5.404635, "relative_strength": -18.565616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.811778, "energy": 45.2287, "activity_lines": [ 9.099667, 11.128091, 11.182214, 11.407602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.27, "volume": 18586437, "typical_volume": 11611002.1, "trend": 11.678333, "fair_value": 5.463929, "relative_strength": 7.556903, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.682461, "energy": 35.496958, "activity_lines": [ 9.839667, 11.185, 11.29831, 11.450957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }