{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ce08af5c-48f1-4c91-a32a-55d6d3c69364",
    "symbol": "ONEQ",
    "name": "FIDELITY NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 90.183,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 64.627,
    "architecture_energy": 32.091,
    "architecture_maturity": 53.897,
    "architecture_confidence": 85.738,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 39.85,
        "rotation_up": 35.4,
        "upward_expansion": 63.46,
        "deceleration": 93.24,
        "rotation_down": 27.96,
        "downward_expansion": 12.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        101.701467,
        101.561261,
        101.26042,
        98.759205
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 105.1844,
    "trend_reference": 95.781902,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.098166,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 75.377486,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395435,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.640681,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.167476,
    "excess_performance": -0.019978,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098166,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038875,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.395435,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051036,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006407,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006108,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.167476,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.200197,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1992841,
      "relative_activity": 1.069095,
      "balance": 2.200197,
      "dry_up": 0.922706,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.040233,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.212182,
      "from_high_reference": -0.014818,
      "from_low_reference": 0.29317
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 95.781902,
      "fair_value_reference": 75.377486,
      "structural_low": 81.338428,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.023716,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000513,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.09707,
        "worst_return": -0.023693,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.091785,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000278,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.153437,
        "worst_return": 0.030137,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.166217,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016843,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.187798,
        "worst_return": -0.050681,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.209587,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003593,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.331299,
        "worst_return": -0.256361,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.058155,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.086735,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.028633,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.022635,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.122571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.140215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.071334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.072177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021119,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.049341,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.046806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 1872244.2,
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        "fair_value": 74.462287,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 1856969.2,
        "trend": 95.059907,
        "fair_value": 74.740256,
        "relative_strength": -1.846401,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 38.240103,
        "energy": 23.649092,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 100.03,
        "volume": 1600302,
        "typical_volume": 1839826.85,
        "trend": 95.363856,
        "fair_value": 75.039591,
        "relative_strength": -0.707965,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.96875,
        "energy": 18.8972,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 105.1844,
        "volume": 1992841,
        "typical_volume": 1864045.3,
        "trend": 95.781902,
        "fair_value": 75.377486,
        "relative_strength": -0.640681,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.627468,
        "energy": 32.090736,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}