{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce119c27-40e1-4a41-9302-57439f4fd839", "symbol": "600841", "name": "Shanghai New Power Automotive Technology Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.653, "architecture_energy": 82.802, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.34, "rotation_up": 16.02, "upward_expansion": 20.78, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 65.59, "downward_expansion": 91.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.722667, 5.995455, 6.719286, 7.32329 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.78, "trend_reference": 7.899, "distance_from_trend": -0.268262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.901859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020648, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.179246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.365532, "excess_performance": -0.322329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.268262, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020648, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.496719, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.311482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.365532, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.213302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81233136, "relative_activity": 0.958055, "balance": 0.213302, "dry_up": 1.001801, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108997, "annualized_volatility": 0.523467, "from_high_reference": -0.489399, "from_low_reference": 0.10728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.899, "fair_value_reference": 5.901859, "structural_low": 5.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.018377, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.004996, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.533537, "worst_return": -0.249451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011706, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.003523, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.520525, "worst_return": -0.236749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04329, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090136, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.061873, "worst_return": -0.309871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.958542, "energy": 89.580518, "activity_lines": [ 6.149333, 6.512727, 7.299952, 7.759183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 68949550, "typical_volume": 88340669.7, "trend": 7.917333, "fair_value": 5.905897, "relative_strength": -23.564088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.643163, "energy": 88.851316, "activity_lines": [ 5.850667, 6.247273, 7.05919, 7.594688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.84, "volume": 104427802, "typical_volume": 85262676.35, "trend": 7.909333, "fair_value": 5.903782, "relative_strength": -17.421768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.025429, "energy": 84.528693, "activity_lines": [ 5.783333, 6.111455, 6.884381, 7.460667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.78, "volume": 81233136, "typical_volume": 84789603.15, "trend": 7.899, "fair_value": 5.901859, "relative_strength": -20.179246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.653049, "energy": 82.802279, "activity_lines": [ 5.722667, 5.995455, 6.719286, 7.32329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }