{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce1341ad-1898-4c45-8392-f8d5a52232a2", "symbol": "ALUNT", "name": "Uniti S.A", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.918, "architecture_energy": 23.617, "architecture_maturity": 14.14, "architecture_confidence": 61.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.64, "rotation_up": 60.47, "upward_expansion": 37.64, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 17.34, "downward_expansion": 21.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.369333, 1.324364, 1.309905, 1.327978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.367667, "distance_from_trend": 0.009018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.508494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.751214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067568, "excess_performance": -0.120879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027894, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067568, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36, "relative_activity": 0.067498, "balance": 0.425753, "dry_up": 0.369363, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083612, "annualized_volatility": 0.451605, "from_high_reference": -0.273684, "from_low_reference": 0.189655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.367667, "fair_value_reference": 1.508494, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.018311, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.00075, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201389, "worst_return": -0.134615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.039173, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.005276, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.413793, "worst_return": -0.103896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.096884, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070599, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.312, "worst_return": -0.227273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020134, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.142814, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.008, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056962, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.152778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135484, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.77, "volume": 349, "typical_volume": 765.85, "trend": 1.942667, "fair_value": 2.273974, "relative_strength": -17.780266, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.530783, "energy": 59.433363, 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1.408667, "fair_value": 1.525353, "relative_strength": -20.286106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.262862, "energy": 45.917797, "activity_lines": [ 1.226667, 1.249455, 1.29281, 1.338473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.3, "volume": 263, "typical_volume": 793.7, "trend": 1.396667, "fair_value": 1.520481, "relative_strength": -11.48729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.09245, "energy": 34.621679, "activity_lines": [ 1.244, 1.253273, 1.289762, 1.331462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.34, "volume": 99, "typical_volume": 643.55, "trend": 1.383667, "fair_value": 1.516891, "relative_strength": -8.374643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.043202, "energy": 24.288934, "activity_lines": [ 1.278, 1.266, 1.291619, 1.327806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.38, "volume": 591, "typical_volume": 611.8, "trend": 1.381333, "fair_value": 1.513878, "relative_strength": -5.648858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.663959, "energy": 13.02076, "activity_lines": [ 1.316, 1.286909, 1.297905, 1.32757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.38, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 572.0, "trend": 1.372333, "fair_value": 1.511186, "relative_strength": -6.755278, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.409498, "energy": 16.070458, "activity_lines": [ 1.349333, 1.306364, 1.304, 1.327484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 533.35, "trend": 1.367667, "fair_value": 1.508494, "relative_strength": -8.751214, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.917664, "energy": 23.617302, "activity_lines": [ 1.369333, 1.324364, 1.309905, 1.327978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }