{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce17d919-d920-4cef-bcb4-dcd8e2d681da", "symbol": "LITS", "name": "Lite Strategy, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.313, "architecture_energy": 20.362, "architecture_maturity": 73.854, "architecture_confidence": 72.016, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.98, "rotation_up": 25.08, "upward_expansion": 17.87, "deceleration": 45.05, "rotation_down": 28.43, "downward_expansion": 54.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.955993, 0.939605, 0.970235, 1.012517 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.9075, "trend_reference": 1.072737, "distance_from_trend": -0.154033, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.961325, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.693549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.12053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.143868, "excess_performance": -0.331322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.693549, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.541205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.48486, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 622065, "relative_activity": 0.404884, "balance": 0.48486, "dry_up": 0.474473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152621, "annualized_volatility": 0.548683, "from_high_reference": -0.836419, "from_low_reference": 0.317509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.072737, "fair_value_reference": 2.961325, "structural_low": 0.6888, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.404255, "directional_follow_through": 0.574468, "median_excess_return": -0.047237, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.402174, "worst_return": -0.689668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.136213, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.204631, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.438503, "worst_return": -0.783962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.245809, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.26593, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.320856, "worst_return": -0.755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008229, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.208955, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.278932, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.416076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.230932, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.926008, "volume": 160836, "typical_volume": 544255.2, "trend": 4.788318, "fair_value": 26.57926, "relative_strength": -18.668536, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"trend": 1.122757, "fair_value": 3.0492, "relative_strength": -56.079997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.890276, "energy": 21.900388, "activity_lines": [ 0.9632, 0.924595, 0.995332, 1.042552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9884, "volume": 863298, "typical_volume": 1606783.05, "trend": 1.110703, "fair_value": 3.018222, "relative_strength": -52.30511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.845313, "energy": 22.739984, "activity_lines": [ 0.981147, 0.933164, 0.9895, 1.033884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9635, "volume": 612782, "typical_volume": 1562456.3, "trend": 1.091487, "fair_value": 2.990228, "relative_strength": -51.473117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.434688, "energy": 19.972127, "activity_lines": [ 0.980087, 0.940507, 0.982019, 1.024387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9075, "volume": 622065, "typical_volume": 1536404.9, "trend": 1.072737, "fair_value": 2.961325, "relative_strength": -54.12053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.312688, "energy": 20.362258, "activity_lines": [ 0.955993, 0.939605, 0.970235, 1.012517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }