{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce1b74e1-2633-4446-837d-03cf1dc27e3d", "symbol": "HYQ", "name": "Hypoport SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.466, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.647, "architecture_energy": 3.269, "architecture_maturity": 16.954, "architecture_confidence": 75.43, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.28, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 35.03, "deceleration": 42.73, "rotation_down": 28.28, "downward_expansion": 40.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.0, 84.971818, 83.848809, 83.717097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 86.5, "trend_reference": 86.025, "distance_from_trend": 0.005522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 173.829167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.502385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.533031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.022599, "excess_performance": -0.196846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005522, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.502385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068756, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35533, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078791, "annualized_volatility": 0.5453, "from_high_reference": -0.502302, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.025, "fair_value_reference": 173.829167, "structural_low": 69.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.124233, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.1135, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.082057, "worst_return": -0.258246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011988, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.079188, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237895, "worst_return": -0.359433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050671, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.671579, "worst_return": -0.40865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0544, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007299, "active": false 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"gate": "down", "direction": -39.167861, "energy": 25.697236, "activity_lines": [ 81.59, 81.475454, 81.706428, 85.583333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 91.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 93.051667, "fair_value": 176.581731, "relative_strength": -39.203552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.324978, "energy": 5.081891, "activity_lines": [ 84.896667, 83.39, 82.614286, 85.418064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 84.650002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3.0, "trend": 91.64, "fair_value": 176.141667, "relative_strength": -41.614086, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.34223, "energy": 12.867586, "activity_lines": [ 85.503334, 83.804546, 82.802619, 84.876022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 87.099998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.5, "trend": 90.343333, "fair_value": 175.603846, "relative_strength": -37.147545, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.803631, "energy": 14.635757, "activity_lines": [ 86.5, 84.614546, 83.223095, 84.583118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.349998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.5, "trend": 88.895, "fair_value": 174.883013, "relative_strength": -39.110422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.090451, "energy": 13.491649, "activity_lines": [ 85.743333, 84.565454, 83.305, 84.131935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.5, "trend": 87.435, "fair_value": 174.330449, "relative_strength": -37.513409, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.862473, "energy": 6.969137, "activity_lines": [ 84.86, 84.522727, 83.439524, 83.777419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.2, "trend": 86.025, "fair_value": 173.829167, "relative_strength": -35.533031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.646537, "energy": 3.26924, "activity_lines": [ 85.0, 84.971818, 83.848809, 83.717097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }