{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce1d52f3-de9f-459d-9c28-9ec95bc08134", "symbol": "KSM-F5", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) S&P MidCap 400", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.577, "architecture_energy": 67.402, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.083, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 50.74, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 183.846667, 481.730909, 5465.105714, 8566.234839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 183.5, "trend_reference": 12057.123333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15849.895513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.858844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.9892, "excess_performance": -1.030487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293266, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.021108, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.756979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.9892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4340, "relative_activity": 4.619478, "balance": 0.713429, "dry_up": 1.765567, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.410145, "annualized_volatility": 6.321234, "from_high_reference": -0.98965, "from_low_reference": 0.061307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12057.123333, "fair_value_reference": 15849.895513, "structural_low": 172.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019166, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.002154, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.074836, "worst_return": -0.073256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002062, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057716, "worst_return": -0.050987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012209, "worst_return": -0.034539, "sufficient": false }, { 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89.033188, "activity_lines": [ 180.7, 4732.709091, 9791.6, 11991.898925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 183.4, "volume": 221, "typical_volume": 894.65, "trend": 13736.036667, "fair_value": 16131.289103, "relative_strength": -98.939264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332607, "energy": 88.56375, "activity_lines": [ 181.986667, 3206.096364, 8585.839524, 11081.176989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 183.7, "volume": 850, "typical_volume": 810.3, "trend": 13178.16, "fair_value": 16038.171795, "relative_strength": -98.938844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994115, "energy": 78.467935, "activity_lines": [ 182.786667, 1987.476364, 7462.853333, 10206.832688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 185.4, "volume": 1224, "typical_volume": 857.45, "trend": 12620.006667, "fair_value": 15944.616667, "relative_strength": -98.872891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.637199, "energy": 67.561676, "activity_lines": [ 183.733333, 1080.734545, 6423.582857, 9368.590108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 183.5, "volume": 4340, "typical_volume": 939.5, "trend": 12057.123333, "fair_value": 15849.895513, "relative_strength": -98.858844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.576813, "energy": 67.401529, "activity_lines": [ 183.846667, 481.730909, 5465.105714, 8566.234839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }