{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce1f2064-dedc-4096-a1e2-3a70da4acd1f", "symbol": "00900", "name": "Fubon Taiwan high dividend 30 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.524, "architecture_energy": 28.984, "architecture_maturity": 70.916, "architecture_confidence": 78.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.55, "rotation_up": 26.17, "upward_expansion": 58.97, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.88, "downward_expansion": 22.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.405, 18.640579, 18.170136, 17.307755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.639999, "trend_reference": 16.22342, "distance_from_trend": 0.148956, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.070763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.426083, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.970522, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.318463, "excess_performance": -0.060849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.426083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063518, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100314, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.318463, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.212545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26405571, "relative_activity": 0.610175, "balance": 1.212545, "dry_up": 0.60686, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05106, "annualized_volatility": 0.269748, "from_high_reference": -0.075954, "from_low_reference": 0.534745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.22342, "fair_value_reference": 13.070763, "structural_low": 13.253243, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01164, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.01745, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.12046, "worst_return": -0.015831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.086087, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038153, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425752, "worst_return": -0.013077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.180965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.106341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.525099, "worst_return": -0.046654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031702, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021953, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.33, "volume": 20387103, "typical_volume": 45503378.2, "trend": 15.892088, "fair_value": 12.968162, "relative_strength": -7.153703, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.131925, "energy": 45.116764, "activity_lines": [ 18.539099, 18.782409, 17.882414, 16.989292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.24, "volume": 27827931, "typical_volume": 44353779.8, "trend": 16.051737, "fair_value": 13.018998, "relative_strength": -6.034354, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.016543, "energy": 32.265284, "activity_lines": [ 18.386866, 18.683103, 18.017341, 17.14077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.639999, "volume": 26405571, "typical_volume": 43275384.8, "trend": 16.22342, "fair_value": 13.070763, "relative_strength": -5.970522, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.524311, "energy": 28.984158, "activity_lines": [ 18.405, 18.640579, 18.170136, 17.307755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }