{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce23e14a-7ed0-400d-9dd3-6d0cdc7230ab", "symbol": "688658", "name": "Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.587, "architecture_energy": 57.694, "architecture_maturity": 73.41, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 22.77, "upward_expansion": 9.83, "deceleration": 53.29, "rotation_down": 55.77, "downward_expansion": 80.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.606, 12.961455, 14.717572, 16.068065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.22, "trend_reference": 18.481333, "distance_from_trend": -0.284684, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.096715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307734, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.949457, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.45507, "excess_performance": -0.411866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.284684, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147998, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307734, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.400224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.369495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45507, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.294331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69373405, "relative_activity": 1.28314, "balance": 0.294331, "dry_up": 1.476473, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145351, "annualized_volatility": 0.619495, "from_high_reference": -0.628338, "from_low_reference": 0.170948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.481333, "fair_value_reference": 19.096715, "structural_low": 11.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.024568, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044269, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.318869, "worst_return": -0.361692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.155985, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.15959, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.440604, "worst_return": -0.248053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.378939, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.37006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.300204, "worst_return": 0.035273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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94806868, "typical_volume": 45539397.6, "trend": 19.917, "fair_value": 19.252447, "relative_strength": -38.818039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.735471, "energy": 62.325191, "activity_lines": [ 13.809333, 14.634545, 16.429048, 17.851506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.83, "volume": 99505256, "typical_volume": 49268124.8, "trend": 19.526, "fair_value": 19.202676, "relative_strength": -39.555234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.223213, "energy": 61.256683, "activity_lines": [ 13.544667, 14.063455, 15.986143, 17.39428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.42, "volume": 85978249, "typical_volume": 51162570.0, "trend": 19.156, "fair_value": 19.156745, "relative_strength": -45.924716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.947383, "energy": 63.063772, "activity_lines": [ 12.856, 13.393818, 15.445857, 16.871312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.28, "volume": 64447173, "typical_volume": 52565312.75, "trend": 18.794334, "fair_value": 19.121655, "relative_strength": -41.091832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.543003, "energy": 60.071625, "activity_lines": [ 12.571333, 13.034182, 15.023381, 16.427699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.22, "volume": 69373405, "typical_volume": 54065342.55, "trend": 18.481333, "fair_value": 19.096715, "relative_strength": -36.949457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.586703, "energy": 57.69387, "activity_lines": [ 12.606, 12.961455, 14.717572, 16.068065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }