{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce26f00c-7b3c-4c21-bb95-2b8a617f2f5c", "symbol": "TAVI", "name": "Tavistock Investments Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.619, "architecture_energy": 19.871, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.257, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.7, "rotation_up": 22.94, "upward_expansion": 12.99, "deceleration": 45.27, "rotation_down": 33.5, "downward_expansion": 60.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.030967, 0.030873, 0.031495, 0.032267 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.031, "trend_reference": 0.033367, "distance_from_trend": -0.070929, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.040619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.936146, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101449, "excess_performance": -0.152685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002531, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269361, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008243, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101449, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.109295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 326446, "relative_activity": 0.256443, "balance": 1.109295, "dry_up": 1.084036, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098362, "annualized_volatility": 0.311817, "from_high_reference": -0.54401, "from_low_reference": 0.107143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.033367, "fair_value_reference": 0.040619, "structural_low": 0.028, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.031746, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.054625, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.802281, "worst_return": -0.216223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039246, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.065666, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.229504, "worst_return": -0.282352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010709, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.348209, "worst_return": -0.469566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 1531040.5, "trend": 0.034316, "fair_value": 0.041177, "relative_strength": -27.58906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.808803, "energy": 42.363962, "activity_lines": [ 0.030433, 0.030855, 0.031838, 0.032811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 1008738, "typical_volume": 1435753.3, "trend": 0.033983, "fair_value": 0.041008, "relative_strength": -25.638769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.992355, "energy": 32.668906, "activity_lines": [ 0.030733, 0.030891, 0.031736, 0.032629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.031, "volume": 1991160, "typical_volume": 1387076.7, "trend": 0.033633, "fair_value": 0.040806, "relative_strength": -27.233104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.762669, "energy": 25.316035, "activity_lines": [ 0.030867, 0.030864, 0.03161, 0.032437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.031, "volume": 326446, "typical_volume": 1272977.0, "trend": 0.033367, "fair_value": 0.040619, "relative_strength": -26.936146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.618842, "energy": 19.870984, "activity_lines": [ 0.030967, 0.030873, 0.031495, 0.032267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }