{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce282131-95cc-4de9-aa49-082854f1a8b8", "symbol": "600104", "name": "SAIC Motor Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.186, "architecture_energy": 51.856, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.703, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.47, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 40.93, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.461292, 10.331242, 11.134458, 11.889557 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.45, "trend_reference": 12.84326, "distance_from_trend": -0.186344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.773544, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.970794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.260962, "excess_performance": -0.217758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117524, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.533921, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290532291, "relative_activity": 1.388626, "balance": 0.533921, "dry_up": 1.422933, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064753, "annualized_volatility": 0.247023, "from_high_reference": -0.493456, "from_low_reference": 0.091103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.84326, "fair_value_reference": 14.773544, "structural_low": 9.577463, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.00565, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.008415, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.317315, "worst_return": -0.210227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014858, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.008401, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.383077, "worst_return": -0.253589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012705, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.008449, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.330769, "worst_return": -0.293204, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.538543, "energy": 83.628289, "activity_lines": [ 9.976536, 10.481032, 11.657115, 12.397659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.123632, "volume": 295850188, "typical_volume": 209800857.25, "trend": 13.150579, "fair_value": 14.810974, "relative_strength": -29.445075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.848713, "energy": 67.428684, "activity_lines": [ 10.014164, 10.312897, 11.424919, 12.190359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.040416, "volume": 314544054, "typical_volume": 209001213.8, "trend": 13.00226, "fair_value": 14.794448, "relative_strength": -22.644893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.440254, "energy": 58.982419, "activity_lines": [ 10.379811, 10.362656, 11.299257, 12.054219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.45, "volume": 290532291, "typical_volume": 209222832.75, "trend": 12.84326, "fair_value": 14.773544, "relative_strength": -27.970794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.185904, "energy": 51.856391, "activity_lines": [ 10.461292, 10.331242, 11.134458, 11.889557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }