{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce2e012c-9178-4071-bbd3-108928d5a2e4", "symbol": "VDE", "name": "Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.389, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.518, "architecture_energy": 42.245, "architecture_maturity": 37.143, "architecture_confidence": 58.008, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.82, "rotation_up": 67.17, "upward_expansion": 74.19, "deceleration": 69.86, "rotation_down": 13.69, "downward_expansion": 7.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 2853.827327, 2801.354483, 2798.544834, 2795.861894 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2790.0, "trend_reference": 2751.457788, "distance_from_trend": 0.014008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2357.776617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.514185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.122449, "excess_performance": 0.177116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104835, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.075142, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122449, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.283636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35, "relative_activity": 0.006835, "balance": 0.283636, "dry_up": 0.004833, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035569, "annualized_volatility": 0.310047, "from_high_reference": -0.154545, "from_low_reference": 0.276621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2751.457788, "fair_value_reference": 2357.776617, "structural_low": 2485.636719, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.003318, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.050166, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.122714, "worst_return": -0.113867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011024, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.035427, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.235885, "worst_return": -0.130008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.091872, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03441, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.207419, "worst_return": -0.145137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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6.289531, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.276511, "energy": 44.157809, "activity_lines": [ 2681.119808, 2720.240092, 2774.426479, 2749.673722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2923.189941, "volume": 16, "typical_volume": 5582.0, "trend": 2687.870174, "fair_value": 2340.712137, "relative_strength": 13.799305, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.93443, "energy": 20.49981, "activity_lines": [ 2758.296875, 2749.107941, 2786.362515, 2766.42783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2905.01001, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 5336.9, "trend": 2711.633081, "fair_value": 2347.093409, "relative_strength": 13.291033, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.840695, "energy": 33.071653, "activity_lines": [ 2819.920654, 2775.056166, 2795.094299, 2780.436852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2894.0, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 5336.15, "trend": 2733.278768, "fair_value": 2352.965077, "relative_strength": 11.748871, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.671356, "energy": 45.370932, "activity_lines": [ 2861.840658, 2797.29134, 2802.152423, 2792.202459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2790.0, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 5120.55, "trend": 2751.457788, "fair_value": 2357.776617, "relative_strength": 7.514185, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.517725, "energy": 42.244963, "activity_lines": [ 2853.827327, 2801.354483, 2798.544834, 2795.861894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }