{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce384814-0f8b-4359-947d-1e18359981be", "symbol": "SPA", "name": "Spacetalk Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.578, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.368, "architecture_energy": 21.347, "architecture_maturity": 28.716, "architecture_confidence": 71.118, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.56, "rotation_up": 21.44, "upward_expansion": 49.16, "deceleration": 90.58, "rotation_down": 39.57, "downward_expansion": 26.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.087067, 0.092527, 0.088648, 0.085822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.088, "trend_reference": 0.0857, "distance_from_trend": 0.026838, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.168985, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.479243, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.532615, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083333, "excess_performance": -0.147039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.479243, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137164, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642576, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1070824, "relative_activity": 0.824186, "balance": 0.642576, "dry_up": 0.892265, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178759, "annualized_volatility": 0.949, "from_high_reference": -0.548718, "from_low_reference": 0.517241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0857, "fair_value_reference": 0.168985, "structural_low": 0.058, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.093424, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.080813, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.210523, "worst_return": -0.227273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.272727, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.268096, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.382979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.377922, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.337018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.532651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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7005890, "typical_volume": 1291296.45, "trend": 0.0888, "fair_value": 0.172728, "relative_strength": -13.10754, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.379761, "energy": 56.664417, "activity_lines": [ 0.104, 0.096091, 0.086733, 0.08608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.09, "volume": 2543513, "typical_volume": 1242246.8, "trend": 0.088133, "fair_value": 0.171693, "relative_strength": -16.479878, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.654735, "energy": 46.495349, "activity_lines": [ 0.100533, 0.095964, 0.087576, 0.086157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.085, "volume": 639152, "typical_volume": 1263123.0, "trend": 0.087467, "fair_value": 0.170746, "relative_strength": -19.943099, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.474343, "energy": 17.034724, "activity_lines": [ 0.095, 0.094782, 0.087905, 0.085955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.084, "volume": 383615, "typical_volume": 1260004.1, "trend": 0.0866, "fair_value": 0.169734, "relative_strength": -21.696981, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.418342, "energy": 12.368982, "activity_lines": [ 0.089, 0.093345, 0.088114, 0.085731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.088, "volume": 1070824, "typical_volume": 1299250.75, "trend": 0.0857, "fair_value": 0.168985, "relative_strength": -19.532615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.367611, "energy": 21.347241, "activity_lines": [ 0.087067, 0.092527, 0.088648, 0.085822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }