{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce39d66c-693f-4bd1-98d4-81853190121e", "symbol": "AEP", "name": "American Electric Power Co Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.351, "architecture_energy": 13.253, "architecture_maturity": 21.424, "architecture_confidence": 75.392, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.19, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 50.87, "deceleration": 86.96, "rotation_down": 37.69, "downward_expansion": 25.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.758667, 131.778364, 131.543879, 131.090129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 125.73, "trend_reference": 129.356107, "distance_from_trend": -0.028032, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.820502, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.115783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056624, "excess_performance": -0.13083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101158, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056624, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23560034, "relative_activity": 1.129857, "balance": 0.616935, "dry_up": 0.979024, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051443, "annualized_volatility": 0.264253, "from_high_reference": -0.105634, "from_low_reference": 0.21693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.356107, "fair_value_reference": 98.820502, "structural_low": 118.125409, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013038, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.016156, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.120868, "worst_return": -0.087061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022689, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015997, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.104954, "worst_return": -0.085383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082293, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.027528, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.175742, "worst_return": -0.02828, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.834295, "energy": 52.309302, "activity_lines": [ 134.868, 133.024909, 132.095458, 130.848395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 135.54, "volume": 16404770, "typical_volume": 20638908.65, "trend": 128.544685, "fair_value": 98.131751, "relative_strength": 2.06837, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.433679, "energy": 42.296462, "activity_lines": [ 135.217333, 133.773273, 132.474231, 131.346159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.85, "volume": 22205135, "typical_volume": 20931976.55, "trend": 129.003788, "fair_value": 98.484942, "relative_strength": -4.118616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.678298, "energy": 10.117188, "activity_lines": [ 132.48, 132.934545, 132.098598, 131.301341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.73, "volume": 23560034, "typical_volume": 20852219.1, "trend": 129.356107, "fair_value": 98.820502, "relative_strength": -10.115783, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.350965, "energy": 13.252578, "activity_lines": [ 129.758667, 131.778364, 131.543879, 131.090129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }