{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce3b7750-8ebc-412d-93dd-481fe12f64f9", "symbol": "ALHEX", "name": "Hexaom S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.346, "architecture_energy": 77.078, "architecture_maturity": 19.869, "architecture_confidence": 86.668, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.41, "rotation_up": 9.85, "upward_expansion": 18.21, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 75.73, "downward_expansion": 93.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.446667, 28.583476, 30.019999, 30.846293 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.1, "trend_reference": 32.054088, "distance_from_trend": -0.123357, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.365237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.270416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190202, "excess_performance": -0.243513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123357, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.617399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23561, "relative_activity": 1.42135, "balance": 0.617399, "dry_up": 0.931726, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075162, "annualized_volatility": 0.377438, "from_high_reference": -0.23224, "from_low_reference": 0.146939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.054088, "fair_value_reference": 25.365237, "structural_low": 25.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.025928, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.241071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.093909, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.090013, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.196429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.143106, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.161585, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.153179, "worst_return": -0.344055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17292.0, "trend": 32.674088, "fair_value": 25.049225, "relative_strength": -10.146295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.039038, "energy": 58.700716, "activity_lines": [ 30.28129, 30.881163, 31.585668, 32.144982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.1, "volume": 9046, "typical_volume": 17221.5, "trend": 32.607421, "fair_value": 25.138647, "relative_strength": -10.327782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.256551, "energy": 67.632654, "activity_lines": [ 29.711782, 30.508412, 31.308417, 31.914396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.6, "volume": 17478, "typical_volume": 16722.2, "trend": 32.427421, "fair_value": 25.213305, "relative_strength": -18.147169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.172669, "energy": 81.642784, "activity_lines": [ 28.49176, 29.730975, 30.8245, 31.52682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.0, "volume": 11694, "typical_volume": 16141.35, "trend": 32.220754, "fair_value": 25.28254, "relative_strength": -20.976529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.809374, "energy": 87.534814, "activity_lines": [ 27.466667, 28.906123, 30.308678, 31.112148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1, "volume": 23561, "typical_volume": 16576.5, "trend": 32.054088, "fair_value": 25.365237, "relative_strength": -16.270416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.345702, "energy": 77.078459, "activity_lines": [ 27.446667, 28.583476, 30.019999, 30.846293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }