{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ce46c0ca-d7d7-4c90-aa51-5cfa2ce054fb",
    "symbol": "CIB",
    "name": "UBS J.P. Morgan CNY China Gov 1-10 UCITS ETF USD acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 65.669,
    "architecture_energy": 64.765,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.709,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.65,
        "rotation_up": 54.66,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 68.66,
        "rotation_down": 29.19,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.105467,
        12.094109,
        11.994857,
        11.894826
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 12.044,
    "trend_reference": 11.7476,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.025231,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 11.414936,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055109,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.159965,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.059652,
    "excess_performance": -0.11124,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025231,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024089,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055109,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023991,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.1016,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010448,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059652,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.620356,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6708,
      "relative_activity": 1.79083,
      "balance": 0.620356,
      "dry_up": 1.340119,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.006285,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.057132,
      "from_high_reference": -0.014403,
      "from_low_reference": 0.101115
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.7476,
      "fair_value_reference": 11.414936,
      "structural_low": 11.338,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": 0.003008,
        "positive_rate": 0.580645,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.580645,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000838,
        "regime_survival": 0.870968,
        "best_return": 0.047989,
        "worst_return": -0.037479,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.024528,
        "positive_rate": 0.818182,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.818182,
        "median_excess_return": -0.041315,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.045447,
        "worst_return": -0.078771,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.035497,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.066445,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.070622,
        "worst_return": -0.098709,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.033369,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
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        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.087822,
        "worst_return": -0.071253,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2023-10-06",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-06-28",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -7.454214,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 55.895901,
        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "energy": 66.650439,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "energy": 84.171384,
        "activity_lines": [
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -6.729472,
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 93.423168,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -7.344449,
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 95.830204,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 11.372667,
        "relative_strength": -9.525364,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 95.182745,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 11.630133,
        "fair_value": 11.381859,
        "relative_strength": -8.871206,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.762212,
        "energy": 93.032078,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.079733,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 12.116,
        "volume": 6243,
        "typical_volume": 3646.05,
        "trend": 11.662067,
        "fair_value": 11.390667,
        "relative_strength": -7.313476,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.053945,
        "energy": 89.633195,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.101867,
          12.044073,
          11.920838,
          11.813622
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.18,
        "volume": 1106,
        "typical_volume": 3701.35,
        "trend": 11.695133,
        "fair_value": 11.398987,
        "relative_strength": -6.420378,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.286145,
        "energy": 94.416173,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.136133,
          12.078436,
          11.954733,
          11.847037
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.118,
        "volume": 6022,
        "typical_volume": 3523.9,
        "trend": 11.726133,
        "fair_value": 11.407167,
        "relative_strength": -7.224456,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.098604,
        "energy": 67.726492,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.134133,
          12.095236,
          11.979114,
          11.874318
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.044,
        "volume": 6708,
        "typical_volume": 3745.75,
        "trend": 11.7476,
        "fair_value": 11.414936,
        "relative_strength": -10.159965,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.669497,
        "energy": 64.765363,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.105467,
          12.094109,
          11.994857,
          11.894826
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}