{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce51c509-716f-49b7-b982-05739d5cc95d", "symbol": "HTMEDIA", "name": "HT Media Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.142, "architecture_energy": 62.061, "architecture_maturity": 26.115, "architecture_confidence": 83.642, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.71, "rotation_up": 69.18, "upward_expansion": 84.0, "deceleration": 49.78, "rotation_down": 12.57, "downward_expansion": 10.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.852667, 25.048182, 23.911619, 23.232817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.74, "trend_reference": 22.618333, "distance_from_trend": 0.226439, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.133654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149432, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.513514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.237288, "excess_performance": 0.280997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.226439, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211928, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.175135, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174711, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237288, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.749128, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5978305, "relative_activity": 7.319929, "balance": 8.749128, "dry_up": 2.814249, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086074, "annualized_volatility": 0.380605, "from_high_reference": -0.113738, "from_low_reference": 0.583333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.618333, "fair_value_reference": 24.133654, "structural_low": 17.52, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.001786, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011836, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.141667, "worst_return": -0.186765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.016136, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068662, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194, "worst_return": -0.328431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.03798, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.068727, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295011, "worst_return": -0.357813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103821, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.203475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201095, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133412, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", 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"close": 26.15, "volume": 1982250, "typical_volume": 531726.2, "trend": 22.43, "fair_value": 24.074038, "relative_strength": 12.401856, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.567059, "energy": 73.689021, "activity_lines": [ 24.902667, 23.934364, 23.039333, 22.634151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.26, "volume": 837745, "typical_volume": 558493.25, "trend": 22.459, "fair_value": 24.081795, "relative_strength": 6.659461, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.889246, "energy": 68.055361, "activity_lines": [ 24.906, 24.132182, 23.226095, 22.752215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.65, "volume": 395473, "typical_volume": 556846.0, "trend": 22.481667, "fair_value": 24.097821, "relative_strength": 5.49202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.392257, "energy": 61.263026, "activity_lines": [ 24.94, 24.344727, 23.431619, 22.89357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.74, "volume": 5978305, "typical_volume": 816716.25, "trend": 22.618333, "fair_value": 24.133654, "relative_strength": 17.513514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.141611, "energy": 62.06085, "activity_lines": [ 25.852667, 25.048182, 23.911619, 23.232817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }