{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce524bcc-edfc-47c7-b6c0-a9df980ed560", "symbol": "002420", "name": "Guangzhou Echom Sci.&Tech.Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.711, "architecture_energy": 55.758, "architecture_maturity": 78.565, "architecture_confidence": 91.54, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 27.26, "upward_expansion": 9.87, "deceleration": 60.59, "rotation_down": 49.71, "downward_expansion": 80.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.335333, 5.384, 5.836667, 6.301613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.63, "trend_reference": 6.890333, "distance_from_trend": -0.182913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.148269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.213734, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288243, "excess_performance": -0.295642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090785, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.271197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242137, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067525, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46774384, "relative_activity": 1.07968, "balance": 0.266237, "dry_up": 1.092619, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094822, "annualized_volatility": 0.361333, "from_high_reference": -0.381319, "from_low_reference": 0.200426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.890333, "fair_value_reference": 6.148269, "structural_low": 4.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.052336, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.055897, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.622917, "worst_return": -0.182344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.134522, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.246598, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.596386, "worst_return": 0.014803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.316667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.301606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.403614, "worst_return": 0.151316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 68.833835, "activity_lines": [ 5.383333, 5.563636, 6.190476, 6.638688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.91, "volume": 48361237, "typical_volume": 44000060.3, "trend": 7.041667, "fair_value": 6.156538, "relative_strength": -32.313187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.796623, "energy": 68.956388, "activity_lines": [ 5.210667, 5.399273, 6.020095, 6.494559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.38, "volume": 45180385, "typical_volume": 43785951.35, "trend": 6.959, "fair_value": 6.151282, "relative_strength": -24.268314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.998577, "energy": 63.620503, "activity_lines": [ 5.23, 5.356727, 5.910333, 6.387355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.63, "volume": 46774384, "typical_volume": 43322440.0, "trend": 6.890333, "fair_value": 6.148269, "relative_strength": -24.213734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.711469, "energy": 55.757837, "activity_lines": [ 5.335333, 5.384, 5.836667, 6.301613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }