{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce53dedc-4f2b-440c-943b-866db65e5a39", "symbol": "CHME34", "name": "CME Group Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.172, "architecture_energy": 24.25, "architecture_maturity": 80.004, "architecture_confidence": 76.822, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.67, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 24.07, "downward_expansion": 57.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.470533, 64.023687, 65.891631, 68.562356 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 67.129997, "trend_reference": 71.609454, "distance_from_trend": -0.062554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 64.071944, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.263201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.129507, "excess_performance": -0.072459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044024, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09865, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129507, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.009575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16647, "relative_activity": 8.777054, "balance": 0.009575, "dry_up": 2.200327, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056443, "annualized_volatility": 0.326626, "from_high_reference": -0.214374, "from_low_reference": 0.159773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.609454, "fair_value_reference": 64.071944, "structural_low": 57.882, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.019738, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.023864, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.206058, "worst_return": -0.138997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.099242, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.087358, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.225954, "worst_return": -0.046612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.194524, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.058201, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.199347, "worst_return": -0.143803, "sufficient": true }, 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"relative_strength": -20.085785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.151112, "energy": 83.183353, "activity_lines": [ 61.358134, 63.154986, 66.920269, 69.725848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.467999, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 1077.25, "trend": 72.078784, "fair_value": 63.787277, "relative_strength": -17.253347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.833516, "energy": 60.634407, "activity_lines": [ 62.040133, 62.793704, 66.243344, 69.144442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.690002, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 1067.05, "trend": 71.76355, "fair_value": 63.931405, "relative_strength": -12.940162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.479945, "energy": 39.524684, "activity_lines": [ 64.175601, 63.41242, 66.058233, 68.861295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.129997, "volume": 16647, "typical_volume": 1896.65, "trend": 71.609454, "fair_value": 64.071944, "relative_strength": -10.263201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.171563, "energy": 24.249866, "activity_lines": [ 65.470533, 64.023687, 65.891631, 68.562356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }