{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce5674d6-7b0b-4f16-aae1-8af800cb39e7", "symbol": "002826", "name": "Tibet AIM Pharm. Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.303, "architecture_energy": 28.001, "architecture_maturity": 35.999, "architecture_confidence": 71.134, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.63, "rotation_up": 22.71, "upward_expansion": 9.71, "deceleration": 62.3, "rotation_down": 43.68, "downward_expansion": 71.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.658667, 16.57494, 17.17124, 17.920352 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.84, "trend_reference": 18.675111, "distance_from_trend": -0.044718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.59695, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312059, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.819754, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.049041, "excess_performance": -0.05644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312059, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139953, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100227, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29731575, "relative_activity": 1.350077, "balance": 0.734481, "dry_up": 1.153467, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111026, "annualized_volatility": 0.509885, "from_high_reference": -0.335073, "from_low_reference": 0.190127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.675111, "fair_value_reference": 13.59695, "structural_low": 14.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.048475, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.028985, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.237452, "worst_return": -0.115651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.100613, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.126483, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.597911, "worst_return": -0.13865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.105498, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.162317, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.434726, "worst_return": -0.051986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.700001, "volume": 33142287, "typical_volume": 25265785.55, "trend": 18.892444, "fair_value": 13.446777, "relative_strength": -22.576821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.937517, "energy": 38.247379, "activity_lines": [ 16.720667, 16.866446, 17.946732, 18.524445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.07, "volume": 34297000, "typical_volume": 25234615.6, "trend": 18.84011, "fair_value": 13.480401, "relative_strength": -17.65346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.915041, "energy": 39.748945, "activity_lines": [ 16.592, 16.646836, 17.675716, 18.342352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.8, "volume": 22525418, "typical_volume": 24318451.7, "trend": 18.757777, "fair_value": 13.514124, "relative_strength": -18.843766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.497746, "energy": 36.535363, "activity_lines": [ 16.325334, 16.431137, 17.4047, 18.146215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 15053213, "typical_volume": 22035412.1, "trend": 18.69311, "fair_value": 13.550342, "relative_strength": -15.050511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.282138, "energy": 39.387804, "activity_lines": [ 16.230667, 16.315848, 17.192066, 17.975391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.84, "volume": 29731575, "typical_volume": 22022126.35, "trend": 18.675111, "fair_value": 13.59695, "relative_strength": -9.819754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.302996, "energy": 28.001495, "activity_lines": [ 16.658667, 16.57494, 17.17124, 17.920352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }