{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce59122e-b57e-4c37-8605-bad88227a62d", "symbol": "GSKN", "name": "GSK plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.662, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.418, "architecture_energy": 38.688, "architecture_maturity": 62.846, "architecture_confidence": 58.492, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.38, "rotation_up": 27.58, "upward_expansion": 23.37, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 33.1, "downward_expansion": 59.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 913.0, 911.143089, 917.763384, 938.589198 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 922.0, "trend_reference": 953.402734, "distance_from_trend": -0.032938, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 767.438806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.424532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077104, "excess_performance": -0.022437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032938, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016181, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072403, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014245, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013387, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.368308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.368308, "dry_up": 0.234873, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019393, "annualized_volatility": 0.179158, "from_high_reference": -0.114218, "from_low_reference": 0.308665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 953.402734, "fair_value_reference": 767.438806, "structural_low": 866.555969, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.000591, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.010046, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.113846, "worst_return": -0.212776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04723, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.035549, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.248375, "worst_return": -0.425061, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042334, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.01521, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.387998, "worst_return": -0.406794, "sufficient": true }, 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46.437025, "activity_lines": [ 913.821997, 909.522358, 930.070083, 946.613272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 882.0, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 121.7, "trend": 949.679938, "fair_value": 763.031206, "relative_strength": -2.152558, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.944718, "energy": 67.904517, "activity_lines": [ 904.273999, 905.123814, 922.741815, 942.287339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 922.0, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 125.6, "trend": 951.641239, "fair_value": 765.235006, "relative_strength": 1.45298, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.864923, "energy": 44.157423, "activity_lines": [ 909.333333, 908.330724, 919.972915, 940.501536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 922.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 125.6, "trend": 953.402734, "fair_value": 767.438806, "relative_strength": 1.424532, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.418098, "energy": 38.687604, "activity_lines": [ 913.0, 911.143089, 917.763384, 938.589198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }