{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce5b72bb-92ec-4bfa-9511-3ccd9be9709b", "symbol": "GLDM", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Gold Miners UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.109, "architecture_energy": 27.088, "architecture_maturity": 43.451, "architecture_confidence": 51.09, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.0, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 62.92, "rotation_down": 37.17, "downward_expansion": 65.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.868201, 56.380546, 58.479105, 60.807828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 64.038002, "trend_reference": 63.8485, "distance_from_trend": 0.002968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.473027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.708909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.146737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033257, "excess_performance": -0.086569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002968, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.708909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.187212, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021467, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20063, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.80806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154324, "relative_activity": 1.691445, "balance": 0.80806, "dry_up": 0.849301, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073895, "annualized_volatility": 0.545763, "from_high_reference": -0.249631, "from_low_reference": 0.656132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.8485, "fair_value_reference": 37.473027, "structural_low": 50.384998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004088, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.009589, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.191278, "worst_return": -0.083887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006447, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030131, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.420347, "worst_return": -0.094821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.164946, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.074766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533795, "worst_return": -0.041344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -80.821901, "energy": 78.152072, "activity_lines": [ 54.579867, 56.298709, 59.675233, 62.119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.935001, "volume": 69254, "typical_volume": 101964.3, "trend": 63.9857, "fair_value": 37.008759, "relative_strength": -7.91334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.57332, "energy": 64.739865, "activity_lines": [ 54.3546, 55.773127, 58.9747, 61.519987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.764, "volume": 36024, "typical_volume": 98105.0, "trend": 63.854766, "fair_value": 37.204615, "relative_strength": -13.299013, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.082096, "energy": 67.949923, "activity_lines": [ 53.606067, 54.981273, 58.151791, 60.796006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.038002, "volume": 154324, "typical_volume": 91237.95, "trend": 63.8485, "fair_value": 37.473027, "relative_strength": 2.146737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.108754, "energy": 27.088145, "activity_lines": [ 56.868201, 56.380546, 58.479105, 60.807828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }