{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce6216f3-42e5-4fa4-927e-d3b1d7d306df", "symbol": "NVBU", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER15 UNCAPPED NOV ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.725, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.103, "architecture_energy": 52.662, "architecture_maturity": 49.643, "architecture_confidence": 70.625, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.84, "rotation_up": 54.38, "upward_expansion": 80.4, "deceleration": 62.91, "rotation_down": 25.76, "downward_expansion": 7.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.999527, 30.864007, 30.685448, 30.282212 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.6552, "trend_reference": 29.823223, "distance_from_trend": 0.061428, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.692147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.432969, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083377, "excess_performance": -0.042248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143111, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017147, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03433, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.153578, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46583, "relative_activity": 1.484459, "balance": 1.153578, "dry_up": 1.166515, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017503, "annualized_volatility": 0.098389, "from_high_reference": -0.000467, "from_low_reference": 0.173284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.823223, "fair_value_reference": 27.692147, "structural_low": 27.7531, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000537, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002484, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003306, "worst_return": 7.5e-05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.034122, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016868, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.034122, "worst_return": 0.034122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 30.7852, 30.769689, 30.333231, 29.968606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.6789, "volume": 66624, "typical_volume": 29435.1, "trend": 29.642167, "fair_value": 27.583701, "relative_strength": -2.916519, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.563751, "energy": 43.927746, "activity_lines": [ 30.76862, 30.755513, 30.415197, 30.039361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.4507, "volume": 3608, "typical_volume": 28552.2, "trend": 29.685407, "fair_value": 27.615207, "relative_strength": -2.984451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.764747, "energy": 37.192139, "activity_lines": [ 30.668527, 30.698605, 30.467531, 30.091524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.7307, "volume": 29608, "typical_volume": 29216.05, "trend": 29.74483, "fair_value": 27.649071, "relative_strength": -3.056505, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.934953, "energy": 35.099368, "activity_lines": [ 30.691707, 30.696449, 30.53798, 30.158962 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.6552, "volume": 46583, "typical_volume": 31380.45, "trend": 29.823223, "fair_value": 27.692147, "relative_strength": -3.432969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.10251, "energy": 52.661823, "activity_lines": [ 30.999527, 30.864007, 30.685448, 30.282212 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }