{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce6311e1-dc8a-4db4-88d9-90cd494d3f00", "symbol": "PTX", "name": "Palantir Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.082, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.634, "architecture_energy": 19.262, "architecture_maturity": 36.736, "architecture_confidence": 51.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.38, "rotation_up": 51.04, "upward_expansion": 23.88, "deceleration": 42.91, "rotation_down": 18.74, "downward_expansion": 29.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.158664, 115.938908, 116.290285, 117.86916 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 146.399994, "trend_reference": 120.752, "distance_from_trend": 0.212402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 77.407615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.891287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.529771, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.261199, "excess_performance": 0.196559, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.891287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.209666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015298, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166681, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.261199, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 417289, "relative_activity": 2.573651, "balance": 1.033911, "dry_up": 1.429645, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095208, "annualized_volatility": 0.708031, "from_high_reference": -0.182123, "from_low_reference": 0.547569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.752, "fair_value_reference": 77.407615, "structural_low": 94.599998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.02286, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.02286, "worst_return": -0.02286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.710612, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.659708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.710612, "worst_return": 0.710612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.720353, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.692603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.720353, "worst_return": 0.720353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.760099, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.614824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.760099, "worst_return": 1.760099, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.300168, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.320239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.230814, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087188, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.24016, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.09, "volume": 461920, "typical_volume": 462251.3, "trend": 10.608567, "fair_value": 13.748255, "relative_strength": 36.122702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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116.175238, 119.070365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.699997, "volume": 153749, "typical_volume": 157811.3, "trend": 124.196, "fair_value": 75.397199, "relative_strength": -16.847938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.800659, "energy": 43.271139, "activity_lines": [ 110.741332, 112.514544, 115.731999, 118.353849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.82, "volume": 139932, "typical_volume": 148856.75, "trend": 122.343333, "fair_value": 75.994699, "relative_strength": -21.609042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.98315, "energy": 30.398637, "activity_lines": [ 110.509333, 111.466908, 114.73219, 117.361849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.76, "volume": 216234, "typical_volume": 149009.65, "trend": 120.953333, "fair_value": 76.558481, "relative_strength": -25.674244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.828796, "energy": 33.471373, "activity_lines": [ 109.073333, 109.799999, 113.46219, 116.22744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.399994, "volume": 417289, "typical_volume": 162138.9, "trend": 120.752, "fair_value": 77.407615, "relative_strength": 1.529771, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.633859, "energy": 19.262312, "activity_lines": [ 121.158664, 115.938908, 116.290285, 117.86916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }