{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce6d4609-4c46-4de5-bd39-b56cbfdd1ed5", "symbol": "000652", "name": "Tianjin TEDA Resources Recycling Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.947, "architecture_energy": 39.677, "architecture_maturity": 94.029, "architecture_confidence": 63.576, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.17, "rotation_up": 25.93, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 42.36, "downward_expansion": 67.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.47, 3.465455, 3.628143, 3.752387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.45, "trend_reference": 3.920667, "distance_from_trend": -0.120048, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.881061, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.697601, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.236726, "excess_performance": -0.244125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120048, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065618, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.175791, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54506858, "relative_activity": 0.809051, "balance": 0.175791, "dry_up": 0.838716, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063991, "annualized_volatility": 0.245444, "from_high_reference": -0.29878, "from_low_reference": 0.064815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.920667, "fair_value_reference": 3.881061, "structural_low": 3.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.022728, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.001503, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.189543, "worst_return": -0.139423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004854, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.055226, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.405316, "worst_return": -0.128534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048283, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.133782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235881, "worst_return": -0.250582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07967, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080378, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", 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-16.725625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.834889, "energy": 69.474523, "activity_lines": [ 3.436, 3.508545, 3.727238, 3.847677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.45, "volume": 68688133, "typical_volume": 68988531.45, "trend": 3.966667, "fair_value": 3.888933, "relative_strength": -17.065437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.693575, "energy": 53.892683, "activity_lines": [ 3.439333, 3.478909, 3.688524, 3.812452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.53, "volume": 48319518, "typical_volume": 67941053.2, "trend": 3.944333, "fair_value": 3.885316, "relative_strength": -13.183087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.528726, "energy": 47.985984, "activity_lines": [ 3.472667, 3.476727, 3.660762, 3.78428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.45, "volume": 54506858, "typical_volume": 67371388.55, "trend": 3.920667, "fair_value": 3.881061, "relative_strength": -18.697601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.947202, "energy": 39.6766, "activity_lines": [ 3.47, 3.465455, 3.628143, 3.752387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }