{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce6da11d-13fd-466f-abf8-94c7b0dead9f", "symbol": "MMT", "name": "MFS Multimarket Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.539, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.131, "architecture_energy": 31.912, "architecture_maturity": 14.519, "architecture_confidence": 95.132, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.72, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 5.81, "deceleration": 49.24, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 76.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.372526, 4.380729, 4.415527, 4.436466 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.44, "trend_reference": 4.468328, "distance_from_trend": -0.00634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.099596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.406976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028492, "excess_performance": -0.154117, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028492, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479744, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1514171, "relative_activity": 1.588296, "balance": 0.479744, "dry_up": 1.765297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022562, "annualized_volatility": 0.111622, "from_high_reference": -0.044546, "from_low_reference": 0.038537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.468328, "fair_value_reference": 4.099596, "structural_low": 4.275245, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014225, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.005089, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.059993, "worst_return": -0.074683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.080317, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031543, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125948, "worst_return": -0.163814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045612, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047457, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.138475, "worst_return": -0.072461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.479705, "fair_value": 4.083515, "relative_strength": -9.569068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.845789, "energy": 57.495443, "activity_lines": [ 4.381338, 4.412732, 4.439541, 4.458706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 2429244, "typical_volume": 862894.9, "trend": 4.4747, "fair_value": 4.088484, "relative_strength": -10.21728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.729519, "energy": 61.039481, "activity_lines": [ 4.362243, 4.395056, 4.42798, 4.449047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.31, "volume": 1310383, "typical_volume": 903995.3, "trend": 4.470304, "fair_value": 4.093723, "relative_strength": -11.283222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.829113, "energy": 62.208609, "activity_lines": [ 4.343076, 4.374736, 4.415258, 4.438421 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.44, "volume": 1514171, "typical_volume": 953330.3, "trend": 4.468328, "fair_value": 4.099596, "relative_strength": -11.406976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.131123, "energy": 31.912417, "activity_lines": [ 4.372526, 4.380729, 4.415527, 4.436466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }