{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce7fd9df-2526-44eb-be50-fc25aa7b526e", "symbol": "FISV", "name": "Fiserv, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.204, "architecture_energy": 27.406, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.684, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.25, "rotation_up": 25.83, "upward_expansion": 15.13, "deceleration": 44.41, "rotation_down": 30.97, "downward_expansion": 60.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.233333, 44.938182, 46.109881, 47.208946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.950001, "trend_reference": 48.964, "distance_from_trend": -0.081979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.74468, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.633793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.834092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111133, "excess_performance": -0.28538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.633793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108646, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110, "relative_activity": 1.453104, "balance": 0.334734, "dry_up": 1.380449, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059468, "annualized_volatility": 0.368069, "from_high_reference": -0.628205, "from_low_reference": 0.076647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.964, "fair_value_reference": 122.74468, "structural_low": 41.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.008032, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.010981, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.174191, "worst_return": -0.51065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051041, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.100196, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.109871, "worst_return": -0.52949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034385, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017769, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.211348, "worst_return": -0.670235, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071161, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.375017, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005214, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015197, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.721844, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 110.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 13.8, "trend": 108.351667, "fair_value": 96.586667, "relative_strength": 6.983844, "stage": 2, 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"activity_lines": [ 44.47, 45.347273, 47.152286, 48.47415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.150002, "volume": 69, "typical_volume": 89.65, "trend": 50.203333, "fair_value": 124.056539, "relative_strength": -47.89972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.619189, "energy": 48.883704, "activity_lines": [ 44.383334, 44.994546, 46.74619, 48.054172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.349998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 58.25, "trend": 49.798, "fair_value": 123.623205, "relative_strength": -45.754746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.507426, "energy": 38.162412, "activity_lines": [ 44.84, 44.92, 46.491333, 47.741054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.049999, "volume": 239, "typical_volume": 70.2, "trend": 49.449667, "fair_value": 123.192436, "relative_strength": -43.313243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.594654, "energy": 27.822346, "activity_lines": [ 45.326666, 45.003636, 46.344476, 47.499247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.950001, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 75.7, "trend": 48.964, "fair_value": 122.74468, "relative_strength": -44.834092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.204478, "energy": 27.406064, "activity_lines": [ 45.233333, 44.938182, 46.109881, 47.208946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }