{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ce85c8b3-f690-410a-823d-8751f8d87a58", "symbol": "CHEM", "name": "The Chemours Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -52.455, "architecture_energy": 78.129, "architecture_maturity": 20.242, "architecture_confidence": 76.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.64, "rotation_up": 16.32, "upward_expansion": 26.55, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 80.06, "downward_expansion": 70.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.606, 15.607091, 17.168295, 17.329771 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 13.955, "trend_reference": 16.977407, "distance_from_trend": -0.178025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.48005, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.153219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.745139, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061439, "excess_performance": -0.235686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135407, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.153219, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.330299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.499165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061439, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.051611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3555, "relative_activity": 8.021209, "balance": 0.051611, "dry_up": 2.79727, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098944, "annualized_volatility": 0.653836, "from_high_reference": -0.422653, "from_low_reference": 0.548966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.977407, "fair_value_reference": 16.48005, "structural_low": 12.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.093366, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093366, "worst_return": 0.093366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.741523, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.583038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.741523, "worst_return": 0.741523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.024667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.817276, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.024667, "worst_return": 1.024667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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18.5048, 17.828607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.345, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 985.65, "trend": 16.593926, "fair_value": 16.522225, "relative_strength": -10.146122, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.038482, "energy": 55.146167, "activity_lines": [ 16.151333, 17.214, 18.231254, 17.75915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.28, "volume": 1087, "typical_volume": 567.15, "trend": 16.773773, "fair_value": 16.513288, "relative_strength": -11.69819, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.257383, "energy": 64.470844, "activity_lines": [ 15.641333, 16.726818, 17.949108, 17.67438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.385, "volume": 217, "typical_volume": 393.5, "trend": 16.907678, "fair_value": 16.498086, "relative_strength": -16.921822, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.345423, "energy": 69.527109, "activity_lines": [ 15.079, 16.17, 17.576757, 17.520266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.955, "volume": 3555, "typical_volume": 443.2, "trend": 16.977407, "fair_value": 16.48005, "relative_strength": -21.745139, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.454875, "energy": 78.129236, "activity_lines": [ 14.606, 15.607091, 17.168295, 17.329771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }